Stagnation and Economic Direction

By : A PRASETYANTOKO

Economic moderation due to global stagflation must be utilized for transformationto overcome our backwardness so far.History is always repeated, but not always the same. Recent economic phenomenaThis is marked by a decline in economic growth accompanied by high inflationotherwise known as stagflation. Our memories quickly go back to the 1970s, whereGlobal inflation at that time reached its highest peak of 14.4 percent, so it was called the era of global inflationhyperinflation. The main driver, the increase in world oil prices.International Monetary Fund periodical, World Economic Outlook, April 2022 editionshows a decline in the projection of world economic growth in 2022 which was previouslyestimated at 4.4 percent in January to 3.6 percent. TemporaryInflation is estimated to reach 5.7 percent in developed countries and 8.7 percent in developing countriesgrowing or higher than the previous calculation. The outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian warhas had far-reaching implications, such as rising prices for oil, food, and costsdistribution.Although stagflation is certain to occur, the determinants and dynamics are different so thatmitigation cannot be the same. Just like the stagflation of 1970, the current situation is also encouragingchanges in the future of the economy. Although in the short term the impact is not toosignificant for our economy, the long-term implications need to be anticipated.

Short Term Impact

The Central Statistics Agency reported economic growth in the first quarter of 2022 of 5.01 percenton an annual basis. When compared to the previous quarter where growthreached 5.02 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percent. However, that's the usual pattern wherethe first quarter is usually lower than the last quarter of the previous year.When compared to the growth in the first quarter of 2021, which is still contracting 0.70percent, it can be said that there has been an economic recovery. As a comparisonfirst quarter 2019 economic growth of 5.07 percent. Economic growthhas returned to its pre-pandemic phase.The problem is, the situation this year is completely different from the situation before the pandemic. ForTherefore, there is no luxury to be satisfied with the economic performance of the first quarter of 2022. InflationApril's 0.95 percent has pushed annual inflation to 3.47 percent wherefood and beverage inflation has reached 5.20. No inflation pressure at allunderestimated even though the situation is not as severe as in many other areas

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Sebelum dan Saat Pemulihan Pandemi (tahunan] 7,07% 5,06% 5,17% 5,07% 5,02% 4,97% 5,01% 5,27% 5,18% 5,05% 5,02% 2,97% 3,51% -0,74% -2,19% -3,49% -5,32% Triwulan | II III IV | 11 III IV 1 11 III IV I 11 III IV 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Inflasi Indonesia (tahunan] 3,35% 3,61% 3,47% 3,13% 2,64% 3,02% 2,18% 2,72% 1,68% 1,87% 2,06% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr Sebelum pandemi Pandemi 2022 Covid- 19 Covid- 19 Pertumbuhan PDB Beberapa Negara 2021 8,1% RP 5,7% 5,3% 3,6% 1,7% 1,6% China Amerika Uni Eropa Indonesia Jepang Thailand Serikat Sumber: BI, BPS, Bank Dunia, Statista, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, dan Nikkei; Diolah Litbang Kompas/RGA K