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Starting with management's NOPAT projections in case Exhibit 17, what do you estimate as the free cash flows for 2010 through 2015? How do these

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Starting with management's NOPAT projections in case Exhibit 17, what do you estimate as the free

cash flows for 2010 through 2015? How do these cash flows compare with those based on the market

scenario given in case Exhibit 18?

image text in transcribedimage text in transcribed
EXHIBIT 52.17 | Genzyme-Financial Forecasts (Management Scenario) in Millions of U.S. Dollars Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revenue Sources Personalized Genetic Health $1,850.0 $1,757.5 $2.284.8 $2,513.2 $3,015.9 $3,468.3 $3,815.1 Renal and Endocrinology $1,008.0 $1,058.4 $1.111.3 $1.166.9 $1,225.2 $980.2 $784.1 Biosurgery $513.7 $590.8 $679.4 $781.3 $976.6 $1. 171.9 $1,347.7 Hematology and Oncology $509.8 $688.2 $929.1 $1,254.3 $1,630.6 $2,038.2 $2,445.9 Other $29.1 $20.4 $21.4 $22.0 $22.7 $23.4 $24.1 Pipeline (probability adjusted) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $25.0 $ 500.0 $1,100.0 $1,500.0 Revenues $4,076.7 $4.1 15.3 $5,025.9 $5,762.7 $7,371.0 $8,782.0 $9.916.9 COGS ($1,386.1) ($1,316.9) ($1,532.9) ($1,671.2) ($2,027.0) ($2,283.3) ($2,578.4) Gross Profit $2,690.6 $2,798.4 $3,493.0 $4,091.5 $5,344.0 $6,498.6 $7,338.5 General & Administrative ($1,428.6) ($1,337.5) ($1,558.0) ($1,786.4) ($2,285.0) ($2,722.4) ($3,074.2) R&D ($ 865.3) ($864.2) ($1,055.4) ($1,210.2) ($1,547.9) ($1,844.2) ($2,082.5) Service and R&D Revenues $438.9 $411.5 $502.6 $ 576.3 $737.1 $878.2 $991.7 EBITDA $835.6 $1,008.2 $1,382.1 $1,671.2 $2,248.1 $2.810.2 $3,173.4 Depreciation & Amortization ($266.3) ($288.1) ($351.8) ($ 403.4) ($ 516.0) ($614.7) ($694.2) Other Expenses ($65.6) ($205.8) ($50.3) ($57.6) ($73.7) $0.0 $0.0 Operating Income (EBIT) $503.7 $514.4 $980.1 $ 1.210.2 $1,658.5 $2.195.5 $2,479.2 Taxes ($121.4) ($180.0) ($343.0) ($ 423.6) ($ 580.5) ($768.4) ($867.7) NOPAT (Net Op Profit After Tax) $382.3 $334.4 $637.0 $786.6 $1,078.0 $1,427.1 $1,611.5 Sources: Analyst reports and case writer estimates.EXHIBIT 52.18 | Genzyme-Financial Forecasts (Market Scenario) in Millions of U.S. Dollars Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revenue Sources Personalized Genetic Health $1,850.0 $1,665.0 $2,164.5 $2.489.2 $2,787.9 $3,122.4 $3,497.1 Renal and Endocrinology $1,008.0 $1,038.2 $1.069.4 $1,101.5 $1,134.5 $850.9 $595.6 Biosurgery $513.7 $590.8 $679.4 $781.3 $898.5 $1,033.2 $1,157.2 Hematology and Oncology $509.8 $688.2 $894.7 $1.118.4 $1,342.0 $1,543.4 $1,774.9 Other $29.1 $20.4 $21.0 $21.6 $22.3 $22.9 $23.6 Pipeline (probability adjusted) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $20.0 $70.0 $220.0 $300.0 Revenues $4,076.7 $4,002.6 $4,828.9 $5,531.9 $6,255.2 $6,792.8 $7,348.4 COGS ($1,386.1) ($1,280.8) ($1,472.8) ($1,604.3) ($1,720.2) ($1,766.1) ($1,910.6) Gross Profit $2,690.6 $2,721.8 $3,356.1 $3,927.7 $4,535.0 $5,026.7 $5,437.8 General & Administrative ($1,428.6) ($1,300.8) ($1,497.0) ($1.631.9) ($1,845.3) ($2,003.9) ($2,167.8) R&D ($865.3) ($840.5) ($1,014.1) ($1,161.7) ($1,313.6) ($1.426.5) ($1,543.2) Service and R&D Revenues $438.9 $400.3 $482.9 $553.2 $625.5 $679.3 $734.8 EBITDA $835.6 $980.6 $1,328.0 $1,687.2 $2,001.7 $2.275.6 $2.461.7 Depreciation & Amortization ($266.3) ($280.2) ($338.0) ($387.2) ($437.9) ($475.5) ($514.4) Other Expenses ($65.6) ($200.1) ($48.3) ($55.3) ($62.6) $0.0 $0.0 Operating Income (EBIT) $503.7 $500.3 $941.6 $1,244.7 $1,501.2 $1,800.1 $1.947.3 Taxes ($121.4) ($175.1) ($329.6) ($435.6) ($525.4) ($630.0) ($681.6) NOPAT (Net Op Profit After Tax) $382.3 $325.2 $612.1 $809.0 $975.8 $1.170.1 $1,265.8 Sources: Analyst reports and case writer estimates

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