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Summarize the following: 4 Key Healthcare Forecasting Strategies Until recently, healthcare financial professionals have leaned more heavily on historical data when forecasting. Now they are
Summarize the following: 4 Key Healthcare Forecasting Strategies Until recently, healthcare financial professionals have leaned more heavily on historical data when forecasting. Now they are expanding their capabilities to use dynamic forecasting so they can more rapidly adjust plans, thanks to real-time data and insights. Finance departments are best able to evolve in this direction by synchronizing planning and budgeting within enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. They use four key forecasting strategies: driver-based planning, rolling forecasts, scenario planning and zero-based budgeting. Driver-based planning: Driver-based planning connects financial forecasts to operational drivers within a framework that is defined by management's strategic objectives an important improvement over the separate reporting of financial and operational information. It also relies more on value-based drivers both internal and external to the organization instead of trying to adhere to a multitude of static annual budget line items. Basically, driver-based planning is a cause-and-effect exercise in which analysts look closely at financial statements and ask, "What's driving this line item?" For example, internal healthcare revenue drivers might include measures of billing and collections efficiency. External cost drivers could include analysis of wage competition among healthcare organizations for physician recruitment. Driver-based planning lays the groundwork for rolling forecasts, scenario planning and, overall, more rapid assessments of the impact of internal and external changes on financial performance. Rolling forecasts: Since 2020, the Healthcare Financial Management Association (HFMA) has been documenting healthcare providers' pivot away from static forecasting that is based solely on historical budget data. That was the year when hospital revenue streams were disrupted by sudden suspensions in elective procedures, among other financial jolts to the healthcare system. In the past few years, rolling forecasts have gained ground in healthcare finance departments as a way to address the ever-increasing pace of change. Conventional wisdom now has it that annual budgets and the assumptions that went into them are already outdated by the time they're created. Instead of basing operations on a single, unchanging forecast for the year, rolling forecasts enable healthcare organizations to retune their assumptions and resource allocations closer to real time. Here's roughly how rolling forecasts work: Start with historical performance. Add internal and external financial drivers to the forecast, from the driver-based planning process described above. Make financial projections for a set time frame, such as the coming 12 to 18 months. Revisit these projections on a schedule, such as every month. Compare actual performance at the end of each month, for example, and adjust operational plans and resourcing accordingly. Repeat the process according to a schedule, such as monthly. Some healthcare CFOs are using rolling forecasting to complement their annual budget processes or only for some functions, while others are using it as a wholesale replacement. Scenario planning: Scenarios are possible futures that could impact an organization. Scenario planning identifies these possibilities, analyzes each one's potential impact and develops contingency plans for managing any related opportunities and challenges. Advisers at Gartner recommend clarifying the implications, risks and opportunities of plausible scenarios and then adjusting strategy, goals and operations. Then, they say, "translate these into action plans by deciding which levers (e.g., people, processes, systems, budget) you should pull to meet business needs, manage risks and capitalize on opportunities."Zero-based budgeting: Typically, each year's budget for the functions within an organization is based on the one from the previous year, plus an incremental increas
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