Summary: Going into 2024, the main topic of discussion was, "How many times will the Fed cut rates this year?" The market priced in five or six rate cuts despite the Fed signaling that they intended to cut rates no more than three times in 2024. Today, the likelihood of a rate cut in March and May has nearly disappeared from earlier forecasts. There is even conjecture that we could pass into 2025 without the Fed cutting rates once. It does beg the question; if the Fed is going to cut rates, which typically results in fixed-income investors locking in long-term current yields, why has the 10-year OTR's yield increased from ~3.75 at the beginning of the year to 4.30% today? If rates are likely to fall due to Fed rate cuts, we should see the 10-year OTR yield drop, not risefood for thought