Summary of Economic Projections In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 15-16, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2022 to 2024 and over the longer run. Each participant's projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy-including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value - and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. "Appropriate monetary policy" is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. 9. Using the following link to The Federal Reserve's March 2022 projections, and using Page 4, titled Figure 2. FOMC Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate, what can you say about the level and direction of the Fed Funds rate in the upcoming years. List the years and the range of the Fed Funds Rate. Summary of Economic Projections In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 15-16, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2022 to 2024 and over the longer run. Each participant's projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy-including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value - and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. "Appropriate monetary policy" is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, March 2022 NotE. Projections of change in real gross domestic product. (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE infiation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and enerzy: Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civitian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-rtun projections represent each participant's asyessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal fitnids rate or tbe projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The December projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on December 14-15, 2021. One participant did not subenit longer-run projections for the change in real GDe, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the December 14-15, 2021, meeting, and one participant did not submut auch projections in conjunction with the March 15-16, 2022, meeting. 1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. 2. The central tendency exclutdes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each yeat. 3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. 4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not eollected. For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 16, 2022 Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2022-24 and over the longer run NoTE: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 16, 2022 FOMC participants' assessments of uncertainty and risks around their econormic projections Note: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively, of the percent change in real gross dornestic product (GDP) from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The confidence interval around the median projected values is aesumed to be symmetric and is based on root mean squared errors of various private and government forccasts made over the previous 20 years; more information about these data is available in table 2. Because current conditions may differ from those that prevailed, on average, over the previous 20 years, the width and shape of the confidence interval estimated on the busis of the historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMC participante' current assesaments of the uncertainty and risks around their projections; these current assessments are sumimarized in the lower panels. Generally speaking, participants who judge the tincertainty about their projections as "broadly similar" to the average levels of the past 20 years would view the width of the confidence interval shown in the historical fan chart as largely consistent with their assessments of the uncertainty about their projections. Likewise, participants who judge the risks to their projections as "broadly balanced" would view the confidence interval around their projections as appraximately symmetric. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the bax "Forecast. Uncertainty." Median projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errors FOMC participants' assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projections Theicconomic projections provided by the members of the the are surnanarined in the bottom teft panels of those fis? the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal utes. Participants alco peovide judpetents at so whether the Resetve Banks inform ditedsions of monetary policy among . risks to their proyicenont are weighted to the upeide, are policymaken and can ald public underseanding of the basis. Weighted in the downude, or are broadh balanced. That is, for policy actions. Considerable uncertaint attends these unforeseen developmenter and evenes. Thus, in setting the fired in the lower-right pancls of figares 4A thropeh 4C. sance of monetary policy, participants consider not only . As with real actrity and inflanoc, the outhook for the bodied in their projections, but also the range of alternative unceraliafy. This uncertainty atises peanarily because each chart would be asymenetrieally positioned aroand the median projection. Because curtent conditions may differ from those that purchases, to provide adiditional accommodasion preyalied, on average, over history, participanas provide . While figures 4 A through 4.C pecride information an Wdigments as to whether the uncertainty attached to their projections of each econoenic variable is yreater than, stealler unicertainty azound the ceconomic proiections, figure I refiected in the widths of the confidence intervals shown in the top panels of figures 4.A theough 4.C. Participants' cur- rent assessments of the ancertanty surrounding theit projec- 9. Using the following link to The Federal Reserve's March 2022 projections, and using Page 4, titled Figure 2. FOMC Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate, what can you say about the level and direction of the Fed Funds rate in the upcoming years. List the years and the range of the Fed Funds Rate. Summary of Economic Projections In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 15-16, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2022 to 2024 and over the longer run. Each participant's projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy-including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value - and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. "Appropriate monetary policy" is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. 9. Using the following link to The Federal Reserve's March 2022 projections, and using Page 4, titled Figure 2. FOMC Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate, what can you say about the level and direction of the Fed Funds rate in the upcoming years. List the years and the range of the Fed Funds Rate. Summary of Economic Projections In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 15-16, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2022 to 2024 and over the longer run. Each participant's projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy-including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value - and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. "Appropriate monetary policy" is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, March 2022 NotE. Projections of change in real gross domestic product. (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE infiation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and enerzy: Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civitian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-rtun projections represent each participant's asyessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal fitnids rate or tbe projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The December projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on December 14-15, 2021. One participant did not subenit longer-run projections for the change in real GDe, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the December 14-15, 2021, meeting, and one participant did not submut auch projections in conjunction with the March 15-16, 2022, meeting. 1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. 2. The central tendency exclutdes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each yeat. 3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. 4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not eollected. For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 16, 2022 Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2022-24 and over the longer run NoTE: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 16, 2022 FOMC participants' assessments of uncertainty and risks around their econormic projections Note: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively, of the percent change in real gross dornestic product (GDP) from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The confidence interval around the median projected values is aesumed to be symmetric and is based on root mean squared errors of various private and government forccasts made over the previous 20 years; more information about these data is available in table 2. Because current conditions may differ from those that prevailed, on average, over the previous 20 years, the width and shape of the confidence interval estimated on the busis of the historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMC participante' current assesaments of the uncertainty and risks around their projections; these current assessments are sumimarized in the lower panels. Generally speaking, participants who judge the tincertainty about their projections as "broadly similar" to the average levels of the past 20 years would view the width of the confidence interval shown in the historical fan chart as largely consistent with their assessments of the uncertainty about their projections. Likewise, participants who judge the risks to their projections as "broadly balanced" would view the confidence interval around their projections as appraximately symmetric. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the bax "Forecast. Uncertainty." Median projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errors FOMC participants' assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projections Theicconomic projections provided by the members of the the are surnanarined in the bottom teft panels of those fis? the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal utes. Participants alco peovide judpetents at so whether the Resetve Banks inform ditedsions of monetary policy among . risks to their proyicenont are weighted to the upeide, are policymaken and can ald public underseanding of the basis. Weighted in the downude, or are broadh balanced. That is, for policy actions. Considerable uncertaint attends these unforeseen developmenter and evenes. Thus, in setting the fired in the lower-right pancls of figares 4A thropeh 4C. sance of monetary policy, participants consider not only . As with real actrity and inflanoc, the outhook for the bodied in their projections, but also the range of alternative unceraliafy. This uncertainty atises peanarily because each chart would be asymenetrieally positioned aroand the median projection. Because curtent conditions may differ from those that purchases, to provide adiditional accommodasion preyalied, on average, over history, participanas provide . While figures 4 A through 4.C pecride information an Wdigments as to whether the uncertainty attached to their projections of each econoenic variable is yreater than, stealler unicertainty azound the ceconomic proiections, figure I refiected in the widths of the confidence intervals shown in the top panels of figures 4.A theough 4.C. Participants' cur- rent assessments of the ancertanty surrounding theit projec- 9. Using the following link to The Federal Reserve's March 2022 projections, and using Page 4, titled Figure 2. FOMC Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate, what can you say about the level and direction of the Fed Funds rate in the upcoming years. List the years and the range of the Fed Funds Rate