Supply: You bake cheesecakes early in the morning. Baking cost of a cheesecake

is $$10.$

Demand: You sell $$fresh$$ cheesecakes later in the day. Selling price of a

cheesecake is $$20.$

Shortage of Supply: You lose a $$potential profit$$ of $$10$ per cheesecake.

Excess Supply: You lose the baking cost of $$10$ per cheesecake.

Objective: Try to develop a good method to forecast the daily demand for cheesecakes.

$$ Apply double exponential smoothing forecasting method considering seasonality

$($deseasoning$/$reseasoning$).(\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}1,\backslash$beta $=0\mathrm{.}1)$

$$ Apply Winter$$s forecasting method $(\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}1,\backslash$beta $=0\mathrm{.}1,\backslash$gamma $=0\mathrm{.}1)$

Describe the implementation details of both methods, evaluate the methods using the remaining

demand data for $24$ days. Submit your HW through LMS$.$

Note:

$(1)$ In applying DES, you may obtain initial slope and intercept as you get in Winter$$s method. Use the

first two weeks data for this purpose. Consider deseasoning and reseasoning as we have applied with MA in lecture. $(2)$ In applying Winter$$s$,$ use its usual procedure as explained in the lecture.

$(3)$ Evaluate your $24$ estimation using MAD and MSE for both methods.