Question
Suppose a bank classifies customers as either good or bad credit risks. On the basis of extensive historical data, the bank has observed that 1%
Suppose a bank classifies customers as either good or bad credit risks. On the basis of extensive historical data, the bank has observed that 1% of good credit risks and 10% of bad credit risks overdraw their account in any given month. A new customer opens a checking account at this bank. On the basis of of a check with a credit bureau, the bank believes that there is a 70% chance the customer will turn out to be a good credit risk. (a) Suppose that this customer's account is overdrawn in the first month. How does this alter the banks opinion of this customers creditworthiness? (b) Given (a), what would be the banks opinion of the customer?s creditworthiness at the end of the second month if there was not an overdraft in the second month? (Hint: Let G and O represent the following events: G: customer is considered to be a good credit risk O: customer overdraws the checking account. Then, the guestion provides the information that P(0|G) 0.01 and P(0| ~G) 0.1 and P(G) = 0.7
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