Suppose a firm projects a $4 million perpetuity from an investment of $18 million in Spain. If the required return on this investment is 17%, how large does the probability of expropriation in year 4 have to be before the investment has a negative NPV? Assume that all cash inflows occur at the end of the year and that the expropriation, if it occurs, will occur just before the year 4 cash inflow or not at all (that is, you only receive 3 cash inflows if expropriation occurs). There is no compensation in the event of expropriation.