Question
Suppose adventurers acquire potions from three guilds: 60% from Guild G1, 25% from Guild G2, and 15% from Guild G3 Suppose 5% of the potions
Suppose adventurers acquire potions from three guilds: 60% from Guild G1, 25% from Guild G2, and 15% from Guild G3 Suppose 5% of the potions from G1 are cursed, 15% of the potions from G2 are cursed, and 10% of the potions from G3 are cursed. A. What is the probability a group of adventurers gets a cursed potion? B. Suppose a wizard in the party has a detect curse spell. This spell never falsely reports a curse, but has a 30% chance to fail to detect an actual curse. The wizard conjures, and the spell does not detect a curse. What now is the probability the potion is cursed? C. Suppose the wizard did detect a curse! What are the probabilities the potion came from each guild?
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