Suppose based on the symptoms that the patient describes during an office visit, physician suspects that this patient has CVD. There exists a screening test for this aspect of CVD that he would like to have before he prescribed a particular medication to this patient. In his practice the prevalence of CVD is 20%. The test that he proposes to use is very good with a Sensitivity of 95%. From his experience he knows that when he orders this test, it comes back positive 25% of the time. If the test comes back positive for this patient, will that provide reassurance to the physician that his diagnosis of CVD is appropriate in this case and he can prescribe this medicine?

Using the Bayes' theorem calculate the P(CVD|Test+) for this patient. In words provide an answer what is the probability that this patient has CVD if his test comes back Positive.