Suppose California Baptist University (CBU) is considering creating a new brand new major, Medical Science, in 2016. If CBU sticks with its current curriculum and creates no further majors, then the annual revenue will be tuition ($11.5 million), donation ($4.4 million), and research grants ($2.5 million). At the same time, CBU incurs costs such as employee salaries ($6 million), rent ($5 million), and utilities ($2.2 million) to maintain its business annually.

If CBU decides to create new majors, then there are three possibilities. First, if medical research proves to be successful, and new faculty members in medical science, receive funding more actively from the state and federal government, then annual research grants are expected to increase from $2.5 to $8 million. Also, medical research alumni are likely to donate funds to CBU in the future, which also is expected to increase the amount of donation from $4.4 to $6 million, so the total revenue would increase by $7.1 million. On the other hand, the university should hire more staff/faculty in those areas, which would increase employee salaries from $6 to $8 million, while rent and utilities stay the same as under the “offering no new major” option. However, business analysts expect this probability to be 35%. Second, there is also a 40% chance that faculties in medical science have a hard time receiving federal research funds due to the recession, in which case, the research grants decrease from $2.5 to $0.7 million, while revenues from tuition and donation stay the same as under “offering no new major” option. In this scenario, CBU will still have to pay employment salary ($8 million) and rent and utilities stay the same as under the “offering no new major” option. Finally, uncertain economic or regional factors may lead to a huge drop in enrollment, decreasing tuition revenue. The boom in the housing market and recent drought increases rent and utilities dramatically. In other words, there is a 25% chance that CBU is suffering a loss of $3.5 million (net profits), if it chooses to offer a new major.