Suppose current 30-day rates are 3%, and 60-day rates are 3.04%. Some market players like to use the fact that the 60-day rate is higher as a method to determine the probability that the central bankers will raise interest rates by 25 bps in the next 30 days. What is your best guess for that probability? What are the problems with this analysis? (Use simple interest calculation and assume a 360-day year)