Suppose that a person believes that on any given day the universe is feeling either favorable f or unfavorable f towards her. If the universe is favorable (resp. unfavorable) then she believes her outcome on a given task is good g with probability 0.8 (resp. 0.2) and bad b with probability 0.2 (resp. 0.8), and her outcomes across different tasks in the day are independent draws with these probabilities. (For instance, if she is type f on a given day then she believes she will have good outcomes on two tasks in the day with probability 0.8 0.8). She assesses ex ante that the probability that the universe is favorable or not is 50-50. She updates her beliefs using Bayes rule. (i) What is her belief about the outcome on the first task, p(g) vs p(b)? (ii) Does she believe in streaks? Answer this by determining if a good out- come on a second task is deemed more likely following a good outcome on a first task, that is, determine p(glg) vs p(blg).