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Suppose that Goodwin Co, a U.S. based MNC, knows that it will receive 300,000 pounds in one year. It is considering a forward put
Suppose that Goodwin Co, a U.S. based MNC, knows that it will receive 300,000 pounds in one year. It is considering a forward put option to hedge this receivable. Currency put options on the pound with expiration dates in one year currently have an exercise price of $1.15 and a premium of $0.03. Goodwin Co. wishes to use its own forecast of what the spot rate might be for the pound one year from now. The company believes there are three possible outcomes for the spot rate for the pound in one year. These three scenarios are shown in the following table: Pound Spot Rate in 1 Scenario Probability Year Option Premium Net Amount Received Per Unit, Less Premium Dollar Amount Received from Hedging 300,000 Pounds 1 $1.10 20.00% $0.03 $1.12 $336,000 Exercise Options? yes 2 $1.16 70.00% $0.03 $1.13 $339,000 3 $1.18 10.00% $0.03 $1.15 $345,000 no Goodwin would like to analyze the possible dollar cash inflows from not hedging the receivables. Using this strategy case, the possible dollar cash inflows are shown in the following table: Scenario Probability Pound Spot Rate in 1 Year Total Price Paid for 300,000 Pounds 1 $1.10 20.00% $330,000 2 $1.16 70.00% $348,000 3 $1.18 10.00% $354,000 Given the information in the table, the expected value of dollar cash inflows when not hedging the receivables, but simply exchanging pounds for dollars at the spot rate in one year, is $ for all 300,000 pounds.
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