1. Suppose that in 2020 the Federal Reserve Bank can take three actions with equal probability: 1) decreasing short-term interest; 2) not increasing short-term interest rate; 3) increasing short-term interest rate aggressively. Further assume that the return on the stock market will be 15%, 8%, and -5% respectively in these three scenarios, and the return on the 30-year bond will be 5%, 2%, and -1% in these three scenarios. Suppose that you can only invest in either the stock market or the bond market and your goal is to minimize your risk (hint: standard deviation). Will you invest in stocks or bonds and why?