Suppose that the prior probability a trading strategy is a good strategy is 1/2. Given that that the trading strategy is good, the probability that it will succeed each month is 3/4. And given that the trading strategy is bad the probability that it will succeed each month is 1/4. Suppose the strategy succeeds three months in a row. What is the probability it is a good strategy?

27/28

1/2

3/4

31/32