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Suppose that the probability that a boy cries wolf when there is a wolf present, is 0.9. Suppose also that, when there is not a

Suppose that the probability that a boy cries wolf when there is a wolf present, is 0.9. Suppose also that, when there is not a wolf present, the probability that the boy cries wolf is 0.5. Furthermore, suppose that the probability that a wolf is present is 0.1.

If you hear the boy cry wolf, what is the probability that there is a wolf nearby? If necessary, round your answer to the nearest two decimal places (E.g. round 0.9143 to 0.91).

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