Suppose that the spot interest rate on a one-year zero-coupon bond is 1% and the market expectation for the one-year interest rate starting in one year is 1.5%. However, you disagree with the market and expect the one-year interest rate starting in one year to be 2%. Relative to the market expectation, do you think a recession next year is more likely or less likely?

a) Less likely

b) More likely