Question
Suppose that whether or not the sky turns scarlet and blood runs down the walls today depends on the conditions over the last two days.
Suppose that whether or not the sky turns scarlet and blood runs down the walls today depends on the conditions over the last two days. Specifically, suppose that if the sky turned scarlet and blood ran down the walls for the past two days, then it will do it again tomorrow with probability 0.6; if the sky turned scarlet and blood ran down the walls today but not yesterday, then it will do it again tomorrow with probability 0.45; if the sky turned scarlet and blood ran down the walls yesterday but not today, then the sky will turn scarlet and blood will run down the walls tomorrow with probability 0.25; and if this has not occurred over the last two days, it will occur tomorrow with probability 0.05. Suppose that on Tuesday and Wednesday, the sky did not turn scarlet and blood did not run down the walls. What is the probability that the sky will turn scarlet and blood will run down the walls on Saturday?
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