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Suppose that you want to estimate the implied default probability for a BB-rated discount corporate bond. The T-bond (a risk-free bond) yields 12% per year.

Suppose that you want to estimate the implied default probability for a BB-rated discount corporate bond.

The T-bond (a risk-free bond) yields 12% per year.

The one-year BB-rated discount bond yields 15.8% per year.

The two-year BB-rated discount bond yields 18% per year.

If the recovery rate on a BB-rated bond is expected to be 0%, and the default probability in year one is 5%, which of the following is the best estimate of the risk-neutral probability that the BB-rated discount bond defaults within the next two years?

  1. 6.85%
  2. 3.28%
  3. 9.91%
  4. 10.14%

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