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Suppose the current one-year interest rate is 6.2%. One year from now, you believe the economy will start to slow and the one-year interest rate
Suppose the current one-year interest rate is 6.2%. One year from now, you believe the economy will start to slow and the one-year interest rate will fall to 5.2%. In two years, you expect the economy to be in the midst of a recession, causing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates drastically and the one-year interest rate to fall to 2.2%. The one-year interest rate will then rise to 3.2% the following year, and continue to rise by 1% per year until it returns to 6.2%, where it will remain from then on. a. If you were certain regarding these future interest rate changes, what two-year interest rate would be consistent with these expectations? b. What current term structure of interest rates, for terms of 1 to 10 years, would be consistent with these expectations? c. How does the one-year interest rate compare to the ten-year interest rate? 6.2% 1.0620 6.20% 5.2% 1.1172 5.70% N 3 2.2% 4.52% 4 3.2% 1.1783 4.19% 5 4.2% 1.2278 % 6 5.2% 1.2917 4.36% 7 6.2% 4.62% 8 6.2% 1.4568 4.82% 9 6.2% 1.5471 % 10 6.2% 1.6431 5.09%
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