Suppose the economy is in a recession, and everyone is asking when the economy will recover. To find an answer to the state of the economy's health, a television reporter interviews a local car dealer. The car dealer says, "I do not see any recovery. The third and fourth quarters of this year we sold more cars than in the second quarter, but sales in these last two quarters were far below the first quarter." The car dealer's sales in the second quarter are consistent with a of the business cylce