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Suppose the lease on a certain space will expire in one year (The end of Year 1). You believe that the probability of the existing
Suppose the lease on a certain space will expire in one year (The end of Year 1). You believe that the probability of the existing tenant renewing is 50 percent. If he renews, you will need to spend only an estimated $5.00/SF to upgrade his space. If he does not renew, it will take $25.00/SF to modernize the space, plus $5.00/SF in leasing broker commissions to attract a new tenant, and even then you expect 6 months of vacancy. What expected cash flow forecast should you put in year 2 of your pro forma for this space, if you expect triple-net market rents on new leases in year 2 to be $20/SF
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