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Suppose the probability you hit a target in some sport is .25 (i.e., 1 in every 4 attempts). Further suppose each time you attempt to
Suppose the probability you hit a target in some sport is .25 (i.e., 1 in every 4 attempts). Further suppose each time you attempt to hit the target, the result is independent/uncorrelated with past results.What is the probability you will hitat leastone of your next three targets? What behavioral bias (involving the likelihood of the union of events) relates to this probability judgement, and would the answer under this bias be higher or lower than the true value?
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