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Suppose you are given the yields on the following Treasury securities. For simplicity, assume that there is no maturity risk premium. Yield (Percent) Security 1-year
Suppose you are given the yields on the following Treasury securities. For simplicity, assume that there is no maturity risk premium. Yield (Percent) Security 1-year 4.90 2-year 6.10 3-year 7.60 4-year 8.90 If you want to forecast the yield on a 1-year security in one year from now, you need to build the following equation: = And the yield on 1-year security in one year would be If you want to forecast the yield on a 1-year security two years from now, you need to build the following equation: And the yield on 1-year security in two years would be If you want to forecast the yield on a 2-year security one year from now, you need to build the following equation: And the yield on 2-year security in one year would be If you want to forecast the yield on a 3-year security one year from now, you need to build the following equation: And the yield on 3-year security in one year would be Step 3: Practice: Pure Expectations Theory Now it's time for you to practice what you've learned. Suppose the market offers the following Treasury securities: Yield (Percent) Treasury security 1-year 4.90 2-year 6.10 3-year 7.60 4-year 8.90 5-year 10.10 6-year 11.60 Make the necessary calculations and complete the following table using the data on the securities yields and the pure expectation theory. Investment Yield 1-year Treasury security, 1 year from now 2-year Treasury security, 2 years from now 3-year Treasury security, 1 year from now 4-year Treasury security, 2 years from now
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