Suppose you are trying to decide which of two diet pills to take. The two have identical prices and side effects. The first pill, named Oomph, will on average take off twenty pounds, plus or minus 10 pounds. Oomph gives a big effect, but with a high variance. The second pill, Precision, will take off five pounds on average. But it is much more certain in its outcome. Choosing Precision entails a probable error plus or minus a mere one-half pound. Pill Precision is estimated much more precisely that is Oomph. Which would you choose and why, if your goal is to lose weight?