Question
Suppose your company is considering making an investment outside the U.S.,in Country X.The country is open to trade and has few restrictions on capital flows.
Suppose your company is considering making an investment outside the U.S.,in Country X.The country is open to trade and has few restrictions on capital flows. Suppose you are given the following information about this economy:
i) Real GDP growth averaged 6.5% in 2018 and 2019, but fell to 1.0% in 2020. Real GDP growth was 6% in 2021, and is forecast to be 4% in 2022. ii) Per capita GDP was $5082 in 2020, up over 40% since 2012. Per capita GDP in the U.S. was $58,00 last year. iii) the country's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was recently announced to be 52.0, in line with previous months, but below its pre-pandemic level of 55. A level above 50 indicates an expansion of manufacturing, a level below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing.
iv) Country X's Consumer Confidence Index was announced to be 117, above its previous month's 115 level. v) After increasing in by 2% in 2020, Country X announced its inflation rate decreased by an annualized .5% in December 2021, while its Core Inflation rate rose by 0.6%. The overall inflation rate is expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, just below the Central Bank's inflation target of 2%. vi)The country's unemployment rate rose from 3% in 2019 to 5% in 2020 and 2021, and is expected to be 3.5% in 2022. The labor force participation rate in Country X is expected to rise from 2020's level of 68% back to its historical average of 72% by late 2022. vii) From 2014 to 2019 the country had a surplus in its current account balance averaging +3% of GDP. The country's current account balance went into deficit in 2020, and the current account balance remains at -1.5% of GDP. The current account balance is expected to rise to 1% of GDP by the end of 2022. viii) Between 2018 and February 2020, the Country X's 10-year government bond yield fell from 6% to 4%. In 2020 the yield fell further to 2.5% and remained at that level through 2021. The Central Bank lowered target for its benchmark short-term rate from 4% in February, 2020 to its current level of 1.5%. The central bank has also lowered its reserve requirement from 10% to 5%. Short-term market interest rates in the country have followed the benchmark rate set by the Central bank. ix) The government's budget balance (T-G) as a % of GDP was -4% between 2015 and 2019, and fell to -9% of GDP in 2020. The budget deficit in 2021 was -8% of GDP. Over the last 5 years the country's debt/gdp ratio has risen from 54% of GDP to 60% of GDP. x) Country X's exchange rate, ( measured as #units of country X's currency per 1 US dollar) has decreased by 2% since January 2021,.
Given this information:
(i) What is your assessment of Country X's macroeconomic environment and do you believe the economic conditions are favorable for a business investment? Explain your answer by referring to the data information provided.
(ii) What additional macroeconomic information would you like to have to make an informed decision?
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