Suppose your prior belief about the likelihood that aliens will visit Earth in any given year is very low - 0.001%. Credible reports come out from the U.S. military that several Air Force pilots have seen 'flying objects' they feel confident are not human-made crafts. After carefully assessing reports on this matter, you believe it is evidence for the hypothesis that aliens have visited earth. In a discussion, your friend who had a significantly higher prior belief about the likelihood of aliens visiting earth tells you, "See, I told you that you should be confident aliens have visited earth! This evidence shows this." Is your friend right? Your answer should explain what it means to say that the reports of Air Force pilots is evidence for the hypothesis. Assume that you thought this evidence had a strength factor of 20, how should you update your belief on the hypothesis that aliens have visited earth?