Question
Susan Wang is very interested in ultrasound imaging, especially as it applies to pregnant women.It is a patient population she feels great affinity for because
Susan Wang is very interested in ultrasound imaging, especially as it applies to pregnant women.It is a patient population she feels great affinity for because she is from a large family and her mother had six children. Even though there is great competition among the existing imaging clinics in her area, Susan has been thinking about starting her own independent imaging center.Susan's problem is to decide how large her center should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of the center and a number of marketing factors related to health care reform and trends in family size relative to the current recession. After careful analysis, Susan developed the following table:
Imaging Center Size | Good Market ($) | Fair Market ($) | Poor Market ($) |
Small | 50,000 | 20,000 | (10,000) |
Medium | 80,000 | 30,000 | (20,000) |
Large | 100,000 | 30,000 | (40,000) |
Very Large | 300,000 | 25,000 | (160,000) |
- What is the Maximax decision?
- What is the maximin decision?
- What is the equally likely decision?
- What is the criterion of realism decision? Use an alpha of 0.8.
- What is the minimax regret decision?
- The probability distribution of the types of markets Susan can expect to encounter is as follows:
Markets | Probability |
Good Market | 0.2 |
Fair Market | 0.3 |
Poor Market | 0.5 |
Develop a decision tree and roll back the tree. Based on the probabilities and the decision alternatives, which imaging center size should Susan choose?
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