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Table 1 Estimated Total Returns State of the Economy Probability T-Bond SETX Golden S&P 500 Recession 5% 5% -19% 20% -14% Below Average 15% 5%

Table 1 Estimated Total Returns
State of the Economy Probability T-Bond SETX Golden S&P 500
Recession 5% 5% -19% 20% -14%
Below Average 15% 5% 2% 13% 3%
Average 45% 5% 9% 10% 11%
Above Average 25% 5% 34% 5% 22%
Boom 10% 5% 25% -5% 33%

What would be your best estimate for the required return for SETX using the SML equation, constant growth model plus the bond risk premium method?

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