Target is a large national retailer of consumer goods and is interested in determining the amount of seasonality within their retail sales. This information will allow the regional directors to evaluate the need for additional staffing during peak seasons. They have provided the past seventeen years of monthly retail sales.

1.Create line plot to evaluate the properties of the historical monthly total retail sales data.

2.Calculate a 12-month moving average (MA-12) of the historical sales data and center if necessary.

3.Calculate the seasonal factor ratios.

4.Calculate the seasonal indices. If necessary, normalize seasonal indices.

5.Calculate the center moving average trend and generate a linear trend equation from the CMAT data.

6.Calculate and plot the cyclic factors.

7.Use the model to generate a forecast for each historical period.

8.Calculate the MAE, RMSE, and MAPE for the model.

IndexTotal Retail Sales

1155168

2191886

3137354

4134834

5153370

6158993

7163931

8163322

9164960

10164356

11159690

12164364

13170372

14206702

15145558

16146646

17173941

18171127

19175932

20178913

21173605

22182866

23175532

24179076

25184718

26222107

27158322

28155494

29182292

30177013

31190683

32192016

33183299

34193794

35182975

36184696

37193822

38228098

39167738

40174358

41192296

42192336

43206266

44197291

45197572

46204703

47189808

48202343

49204005

50237949

51181374

52178736

53204054

54199532

55211859

56205861

57209263

58212399

59201893

60210701

61208133

62250198

63188012

64184275

65208491

66212745

67221629

68221317

69218109

70216988

71209272

72220869

73219322

74266076

75197132

76199813

77230644

78227524

79237898

80237292

81237443

82240946

83231138

84233672

85241381

86293673

87214181

88227604

89254263

90239549

91258089

92255573

93244909

94257934

95244032

96245542

97252488

98294592

99226978

100224162

101253617

102249191

103269008

104260812

105252117

106267168

107236843

108265944

109262591

110299294

111231131

112228649

113257522

114257591

115272037

116260858

117267374

118278374

119246909

120260546

121264113

122309218

123242610

124233808

125264642

126266096

127281629

128271507

129279636

130285513

131265543

132274119

133272514

134327860

135252890

136253771

137288059

138284515

139296450

140289869

141295028

142294238

143283074

144287572

145294285

146354589

147263434

148265306

149306322

150302081

151311271

152317264

153316601

154321123

155300225

156302006

157311428

158370303

159285831

160282247

161326013

162316675

163337555

164330878

165325763

166338872

167310590

168312794

169322758

170379560

171295017

172290198

173336020

174322337

175353582

176338448

177333797

178348971

179316953

180330850

181341455

182387195

183307644

184308846

185335581

186332714

187359693

188341970

189346516

190344528

191315534

192314224

193302569

194350138

195277402

196269015

197295520

198298119

199313979

200312547

201314603

202320197

203293459

204306151