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Tashna is planning to invest in a farming project in 2022, but has reservation given the different forecasts (decline (D), average (A) and take-off (T))
Tashna is planning to invest in a farming project in 2022, but has reservation given the different forecasts (decline (D), average (A) and take-off (T)) of the economy. She uses the following to guide her decision making: (i) there is a 25% chance she will invest (I) if there is a forecast of decline; (ii) there is a 75% chance she will invest if there is a forecast of average growth; and (i) there is a 55% chance of investing if there is a forecast that the economy will take-off. Tashna believes that (for 2022) there is a 20% chance of decline, a 40% chance of average growth and a 40% chance the economy will take-off. Based on these probabilities, what is the chance that Tashna will invest in the farming project, if the stated forecasts hold? Select one: a. 0.135 b. 0.460 c. 0.470 d. 0.667
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