TASK

You are asked to submit a position paper on the following:

"What do you anticipate the outcome of the war in the Ukraine to be (Russian or Western/Ukraine victory)? How will this affect the world order, that being the arrangements set in place to control world events and foster economic and political stability?"

According to the following

December 26, 1991 was a profound day in the history of the world. It was on that day the Soviet Union formally collapsed. The Soviet Union was an agglomeration of socialist republics that emerged after the 1918 Bolshevik Revolution in Russia. This was the start of communist rule and all republics fell under the authority of Moscow in Russia. Following the dismemberment of the Soviet Union, the republics elected to exist as independent sovereign states. The largest of these states were Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

In the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia moved towards democratic elections. The run up to 2000 saw the emergence of Vladimir Putin, who has served as President for more than 20 years. The exception was an intermittent period in which he acted in the capacity of Prime Minister under the presidency of Dmitry Medvedev, effectively exerting authority behind the scenes.

Putin's presidency has been characterised by specific aims. First, the revitalization of Russian supremacy after the fallout of the Soviet Union collapse. This was evident in aggressive military incursions into area such as Crimea and Georgia. Second, consolidation of energy resources in an effort for Russia to exert influence on global energy markets. Russia today is the third largest producer of oil and has the eighth largest reserves. The Russian state, through stakes in various energy companies, has participated in joint ventures with western companies, though in some cases it unfolded into dominant Russian control. Third, to ensure no encroachment of western institutions, such as NATO, on Russian sovereignty.

The invasion into Ukraine would appear to be consistent with the ambitions of the Russian state under Vladimir Putin. While the outcome is still unpredictable, it will have implications for the state of the world moving forward. In anticipation of these outcomes, business will have to reassess their global strategies.