Text Problem A 9 Problem A 1 Probabilities 0 100 0 400 0 300 0 200 State of Nature Size of Crowd at Restaurant Altomative POOR FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT BATCH ( 260,0001 $1,000 000 $1,200 000 $1,300,000 CUSTOM $100 000 $300 000 $700,000 $800 000 GROUP TECHNOLOGY (51,000 000) (5500,000) 5500,000 $2 000 000 Regret Table for Problem A 1 Allemative POOR FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT BATCH $300 000 50 $700 000 CUSTOM $700 000 $500,000 $1 200,000 GROUP TECHNOLOGY $1 100,000 $1 500 000 $700 000 SO Alternative Expected Value Minimum Maximum Laplace Regret BATCH $1,000,000 (5200 002) $1,200 000 $825,000 $700 000 CUSTOM 5800 000 $100 000 $700,000 $476 000 $1 200 000 GROUP TECHNOLOGY $250 000 $900,000 $250 000 $1,800 000 Expected Monetary Value (EMV) $1 000,000 $100,000 $1,200 000 (equally likely) Value $825,000 MiniMax Regret Value $700,000 Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Best Outcome for each State of Nature $100,000 51,000,000 $1,200 000 $2 000,000 Expected Value under Certainty 51,170 000 EMV $1,000,000 EVPL $170,000

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Text Problem A 9 Problem A 1 Probabilities    0 100 0 400 0 300 0 200 State of Nature   Size of Crowd at Restaurant Altomative POOR FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT BATCH ( 260,0001 $1,000 000 $1,200 000 $1,300,000 CUSTOM $100 000 $300 000 $700,000 $800 000 GROUP TECHNOLOGY (51,000 000) (5500,000) 5500,000 $2 000 000 Regret Table for Problem A 1 Allemative POOR FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT BATCH $300 000 50 $700 000 CUSTOM $700 000 $500,000 $1 200,000 GROUP TECHNOLOGY $1 100,000 $1 500 000 $700 000 SO Alternative Expected Value Minimum Maximum Laplace Regret BATCH $1,000,000 (5200 002) $1,200 000 $825,000 $700 000 CUSTOM 5800 000 $100 000 $700,000 $476 000 $1 200 000 GROUP TECHNOLOGY $250 000 $900,000 $250 000 $1,800 000 Expected Monetary Value (EMV)  $1 000,000 $100,000 $1,200 000 (equally likely) Value  $825,000 MiniMax Regret Value  $700,000 Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Best Outcome for each State of Nature  $100,000 51,000,000 $1,200 000 $2 000,000 Expected Value under Certainty 51,170 000 EMV  $1,000,000 EVPL $170,000

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Text Problem A.9 Problem A.1 Probabilities >> 0.100 0.400 0.300 0.200 State of Nature > Size of Crowd at Restaurant Altomative POOR FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT

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