The 400-word paper on what I learned in two other chapters

Chapter 15 The Problem of the Zero Percent Interest Rate Lower Bound Most economists believe that monetary policy (the manipulation of interest rates and credit conditions by a nation's central bank) has a powerful influence on a nation's economy. Monetary policy works when the central bank reduces interest rates and makes credit more available. As a result, business investment and other types of spending increase, causing GDP and employment to grow. However, what if the interest rates banks pay are close to zero already? They cannot be made negative, can they? That would mean that lenders pay borrowers for the privilege of taking their money. Yet, this was the situation the 360 15 Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation U.S. Federal Reserve found itself in both at the end of the 2008-2009 recession and during the COVID-19 recession of 2020. The federal funds rate, which is the interest rate for banks that the Federal Reserve targets with its monetary policy, was slightly above 5% in 2007. By 2009, it had fallen to 0.16%. It then fell again from over 2% to 0.05% in March 2020. During the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve's situation was further complicated because fiscal policy, the other major tool for managing the economy, was constrained by fears that the federal budget deficit and the public debt were already too high. What were the Federal Reserve's options? How could the Federal Reserve use monetary policy to stimulate the economy? And while fiscal policy was more aggressive in 2020, the economic situation has in some cases been more severe and additional financial support was necessary. The solution to the problem of the lower bound in both recessions, as we will see in this chapter, was to change the rules of the game. Money, loans, and banks are all interconnected. Money is deposited in bank accounts, which is then loaned to businesses, individuals, and other banks. When the interlocking system of money, loans, and banks works well, economic transactions smoothly occur in goods and labor markets and savers are connected with borrowers. If the money and banking system does not operate smoothly, the economy can either fall into recession or suffer prolonged inflation. The government of every country has public policies that support the system of money, loans, and banking. However, these policies do not always work perfectly. This chapter discusses how monetary policy works and what may prevent it from working perfectly. 15.1 The Federal Reserve Banking System and Central Banks LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this section, you will be able to: Explain the structure and organization of the U.S. Federal Reserve Discuss how central banks impact monetary policy, promote financial stability, and provide banking services In making decisions about the money supply, a central bank decides whether to raise or lower interest rates and, in this way, to influence macroeconomic policy, whose goal is low unemployment and low inflation. The central bank is also responsible for regulating all or part of the nation's banking system to protect bank depositors and insure the health of the bank's balance sheet. We call the organization responsible for conducting monetary policy and ensuring that a nation's financial system operates smoothly the central bank. Most nations have central banks or currency boards. Some prominent central banks around the world include the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. In the United States, we call the central bank the Federal Reserveoften abbreviated as just "the Fed." This section explains the U.S. Federal Reserve's organization and identifies the major central bank's responsibilities. Structure/Organization of the Federal Reserve Unlike most central banks, the Federal Reserve is semi-decentralized, mixing government appointees with representation from private-sector banks. At the national level, it is run by a Board of Governors, consisting of seven members appointed by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate. Appointments are for 14-year terms and they are arranged so that one term expires January 31 of every even-numbered year. The purpose of the long and staggered terms is to insulate the Board of Governors as much as possible from political pressure so that governors can make policy decisions based only on their economic merits. Additionally, except when filling an unfinished term, each member only serves one term, further insulating decision-making from politics. The Fed's policy decisions do not require congressional approval, and the President cannot ask for a Federal Reserve Governor to resign as the President can with cabinet positions. Access for free at openstax.org One member of the Board of Governors is designated as the Chair. For example, from 1987 until early 2006, the Chair was Alan Greenspan. From 2006 until 2014, Ben Bernanke held the post. From 2014 to 2018, Janet Yellen was the Chair. The current Chair is Jerome Powell. See the following Clear It Up feature to find out more about the former and current Chair. the Federal Reserve System/Flickr, Public Domain) What individual can make a financial market crash or soar just by making a public statement? It is not Bill Gates or Warren Buffett. It is not even the President of the United States. The answer is the Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. In 2018, President Donald Trump appointed Jerome H. Powell to a 4-year term as chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Janet Yellen, who served as the first female chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014-2018 and who now serves as the Treasury Secretary in the Biden administration. In November 2021, Powell was nominated for a second term by President Biden; this appointment was confirmed in early-2022. Powell played a pivotal role during the COVID-19 recession and its aftermath; in March 2020, under his leadership the Fed acted quickly to reduce the effective federal funds rate and expand its lending and bond-buying actions, similar to what Ben Bernanke did during the Great Recession. A centrist at heart, Powell has been criticized for fueling asset prices, even though in his many speeches and testimony before Congress he has consistently emphasized low unemployment rates and has been more tolerant of inflation than others on the Federal Reserve Board. Powell is not an academic economist by training or careerhe has a J.D. from Georgetown Law and worked for many years at investment banks and on corporate boardsbut this lack of "ivory tower" influences has helped guide a practical approach to economic problems, for which he is best known The Federal Reserve, like most central banks, is designed to perform three important functions: 1. To conduct monetary policy 2. To promote stability of the financial system 3. To provide banking services to commercial banks and other depository institutions, and to provide banking services to the federal government. The first two functions are sufficiently important that we will discuss them in their own modules. The third function we will discuss here. The Federal Reserve provides many of the same services to banks as banks provide to their customers. For example, all commercial banks have an account at the Fed where they deposit reserves. Similarly, banks can obtain loans from the Fed through the "discount window" facility, which we will discuss in more detail later. The Fed is also responsible for check processing. When you write a check, for example, to buy groceries, the grocery store deposits the check in its bank account. Then, the grocery store's bank returns the physical check (or an image of that actual check) to your bank, after which it transfers funds from your bank account to the grocery store's account. The Fed is responsible for each of these actions. On a more mundane level, the Federal Reserve ensures that enough currency and coins are circulating through the financial system to meet public demands. For example, each year the Fed increases the amount of currency available in banks around the Christmas shopping season and reduces it again in January. Finally, the Fed is responsible for assuring that banks are in compliance with a wide variety of consumer protection laws. For example, banks are forbidden from discriminating on the basis of age, race, sex, or marital status. Banks are also required to disclose publicly information about the loans they make for buying houses and how they distribute the loans geographically, as well as by sex and race of the loan applicants. Access for free at openstax.org 15.2 Bank Regulation LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this section, you will be able to: Discuss the relationship between bank regulation and monetary policy Explain bank supervision Explain how deposit insurance and lender of last resort are two strategies to protect against bank runs A safe and stable national financial system is a critical concern of the Federal Reserve. The goal is not only to protect individuals' savings, but to protect the integrity of the financial system itself. This esoteric task is usually behind the scenes, but came into view during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, when for a brief period of time, critical parts of the financial system failed and firms became unable to obtain financing for ordinary parts of their business. Imagine if suddenly you were unable to access the money in your bank accounts because your checks were not accepted for payment and your debit cards were declined. This gives an idea of a failure of the payments/financial system. Bank regulation is intended to maintain banks' solvency by avoiding excessive risk. Regulation falls into a number of categories, including reserve requirements, capital requirements, and restrictions on the types of investments banks may make. In Money and Banking, we learned that banks are required to hold a minimum percentage of their deposits on hand as reserves. "On hand" is a bit of a misnomer because, while a portion of bank reserves are held as cash in the bank, the majority are held in the bank's account at the Federal Reserve, and their purpose is to cover desired withdrawals by depositors. Another part of bank regulation is restrictions on the types of investments banks are allowed to make. Banks are permitted to make loans to businesses, individuals, and other banks. They can purchase U.S. Treasury securities but, to protect depositors, they are not permitted to invest in the stock market or other assets that are perceived as too risky. Bank capital is the difference between a bank's assets and its liabilities. In other words, it is a bank's net worth. A bank must have positive net worth; otherwise it is insolvent or bankrupt, meaning it would not have enough assets to pay back its liabilities. Regulation requires that banks maintain a minimum net worth, usually expressed as a percent of their assets, to protect their depositors and other creditors. Chapter 17 No Yellowstone Park? You had trekked all the way to see Yellowstone National Park in the beautiful month of October 2013, only to find it... closed. Closed! Why? For two weeks in October 2013, the U.S. federal government shut down. Many federal services, like the national parks, closed and 800,000 federal employees were furloughed. Tourists were shocked and so was the rest of the world: Congress and the President could not agree on a budget. Inside the Capitol, Republicans and Democrats 416 17 Government Budgets and Fiscal Policy argued about spending priorities and whether to increase the national debt limit. Each year's budget, which is over $3 trillion of spending, must be approved by Congress and signed by the President. Two thirds of the budget are entitlements and other mandatory spending which occur without congressional or presidential action once the programs are established. Tied to the budget debate was the issue of increasing the debt ceilinghow high the U.S. government's national debt can be. The House of Representatives refused to sign on to the bills to fund the government unless they included provisions to stop or change the Affordable Health Care Act (more colloquially known as Obamacare). As the days progressed, the United States came very close to defaulting on its debt. October 2013 was not the first time the government shut down, and it was not the last. Several brief shutdowns occurred in the early 1980s, and they occurred periodically in the following years. The longest shutdown took place between December 2018 and January 2019, when funding a border wall was a core disagreement. Why does the federal budget create such intense debates? What would happen if the United States actually defaulted on its debt? In this chapter, we will examine the federal budget, taxation, and fiscal policy. We will also look at the annual federal budget deficits and the national debt. All levels of governmentfederal, state, and localhave budgets that show how much revenue the government expects to receive in taxes and other income and how the government plans to spend it. Budgets, however, can shift dramatically within a few years, as policy decisions and unexpected events disrupt earlier tax and spending plans. In this chapter, we revisit fiscal policy, which we first covered in Welcome to Economics! Fiscal policy is one of two policy tools for fine tuning the economy (the other is monetary policy). While policymakers at the Federal Reserve make monetary policy, Congress and the President make fiscal policy. The discussion of fiscal policy focuses on how federal government taxing and spending affects aggregate demand. All government spending and taxes affect the economy, but fiscal policy focuses strictly on federal government policies. We begin with an overview of U.S. government spending and taxes. We then discuss fiscal policy from a short-run perspective; that is, how government uses tax and spending policies to address recession, unemployment, and inflation; how periods of recession and growth affect government budgets; and the merits of balanced budget proposals. 17.1 Government Spending LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this section, you will be able to: Identify U.S. budget deficit and surplus trends over the past five decades Explain the differences between the U.S. federal budget, and state and local budgets Government spending covers a range of services that the federal, state, and local governments provide. When the federal government spends more money than it receives in taxes in a given year, it runs a budget deficit. Conversely, when the government receives more money in taxes than it spends in a year, it runs a budget surplus. If government spending and taxes are equal, it has a balanced budget. For example, in 2020, the U.S. government experienced its largest budget deficit ever, as the federal government spent $3.1 trillion more than it collected in taxes. This deficit was about 15% of the size of the U.S. GDP in 2020, making it by far the largest budget deficit relative to GDP since the mammoth borrowing the government used to finance World War II. To put it into perspective, the previous record deficits were experienced during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, when the deficit reached 9.6% of GDP. This section presents an overview of government spending in the United States. Total U.S. Government Spending Federal spending in nominal dollars (that is, dollars not adjusted for inflation) has grown by a multiple of more Access for free at openstax.org than 38 over the last four decades, from $93.4 billion in 1960 to $6.8 trillion in 2020. Comparing spending over time in nominal dollars is misleading because it does not take into account inflation or growth in population and the real economy. A more useful method of comparison is to examine government spending as a percent of GDP over time. The top line in Figure 17.2 shows the federal spending level since 1960, expressed as a share of GDP. Despite a widespread sense among many Americans that the federal government has been growing steadily larger, the graph shows that federal spending has hovered in a range from 18% to 22% of GDP most of the time since 1960. For example, throughout the latter part of the 2010s, government expenditures were around 20% of GDP. The other lines in Figure 17.2 show the major federal spending categories: national defense, Social Security, health programs, and interest payments. From the graph, we see that national defense spending as a share of GDP has generally declined since the 1960s, although there were some upward bumps in the 1980s buildup under President Ronald Reagan and in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. In contrast, Social Security and healthcare have grown steadily as a percent of GDP. Healthcare expenditures include both payments for senior citizens (Medicare), and payments for low-income Americans (Medicaid). FIGURE 17.2 Federal Spending, 1960-2020 Since 1960, total federal spending has ranged from about 18% to 22% of GDP. It climbed above that level in 2009, quickly dropped back down to that level by 2013, and again climbed above that level in 2020. The share that the government has spent on national defense has generally declined, while the share it has spent on Social Security and on healthcare expenses (mainly Medicare and Medicaid) has increased. (Source: Economic Report of the President, 2021, Table B47, https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.govinfo.gov%2Fapp%2Fcollection%2Ferp%2F2021&data=05%7C02%7C%7C1cb92ac7b82a43fab3bf08dc77a28946%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638516787173567024%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=hYHN7vDU%2FU%2F9V17nMeEzqRWmi9aiCavc8PCkUgMqkd0%3D&reserved=0) Each year, the government borrows funds from U.S. citizens and foreigners to cover its budget deficits. It does this by selling securities (Treasury bonds, notes, and bills)in essence borrowing from the public and promising to repay with interest in the future. From 1961 to 1997, the U.S. government has run budget deficits, and thus borrowed funds, in almost every year. It had budget surpluses from 1998 to 2001, and then returned to deficits. The interest payments on past federal government borrowing were typically 1-2% of GDP in the 1960s and 1970s but then climbed above 3% of GDP in the 1980s and stayed there until the late 1990s. The government was able to repay some of its past borrowing by running surpluses from 1998 to 2001 and, with help from low interest rates, the interest payments on past federal government borrowing had fallen back to 1.6% of GDP by 2020. We investigate the government borrowing and debt patterns in more detail later in this chapter, but first we 17.1 Government Spending 417 418 17 Government Budgets and Fiscal Policy need to clarify the difference between the deficit and the debt. The deficit is not the debt. The difference between the deficit and the debt lies in the time frame. The government deficit (or surplus) refers to what happens with the federal government budget each year. The government debt is accumulated over time. It is the sum of all past deficits and surpluses. If you borrow $10,000 per year for each of the four years of college, you might say that your annual deficit was $10,000, but your accumulated debt over the four years is $40,000. These four categoriesnational defense, Social Security, healthcare, and interest paymentsgenerally account for roughly 60% of all federal spending, as Figure 17.3 shows. (Due to the large amount of one-time expenditures by the federal government in 2020 due to the pandemic, the 2019 statistics are presented here.) The remaining 40% wedge of the pie chart covers all other categories of federal government spending: international affairs; science and technology; natural resources and the environment; transportation; housing; education; income support for people in poverty; community and regional development; law enforcement and the judicial system; and the administrative costs of running the government. URE 17.4 State and Local Spending, 1960-2020 Spending by state and local government increased from about 10% of GDP in the early 1960s to 14-16% by the mid-1970s. It has remained at roughly that level since. The single biggest spending item is education, including both K-12 spending and support for public colleges and universities, which has been about 4-5% of GDP in recent decades. Source: (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapps.bea.gov%2FiTable%2Findex_nipa.cfm&data=05%7C02%7C%7C1cb92ac7b82a43fab3bf08dc77a28946%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638516787173576469%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=keu2yApKoGL3QivkEfjhnXqWLGCRd5n0JY7QAiblfzA%3D&reserved=0.) U.S. presidential candidates often run for office pledging to improve the public schools or to get tough on crime. However, in the U.S. government system, these tasks are primarily state and local government responsibilities. In fiscal year 2020 state and local governments spent about $970 billion per year on education (including K-12 and college and university education), compared to only $100 billion by the federal government. In other words, about 90 cents of every dollar spent on education happens at the state and local level. A politician who really wants hands-on responsibility for reforming education or reducing crime might do better to run for mayor of a large city or for state governor rather than for president of the United States. Taxes are paid by most, but not all, people who work. Even if you are part of the so-called "1099" or "gig" economy, you are considered an independent contractor and must pay taxes on the income you earn in those occupations. Taxes are also paid by consumers whenever they purchase goods and services. Taxes are used for all sorts of spendingfrom roads, to bridges, to schools (K-12 and public higher education), to police and other public safety functions. Taxes fund vital public services that support our communities. 17.2 Taxation LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this section, you will be able to: Differentiate among a regressive tax, a proportional tax, and a progressive tax Identify major revenue sources for the U.S. federal budget There are two main categories of taxes: those that the federal government collects and those that the state and local governments collect. What percentage the government collects and for what it uses that revenue varies greatly. The following sections will briefly explain the taxation system in the United States. Taxes are paid by most, but not all, people who work. Even if you are part of the so-called "1099" or "gig" economy, you are considered an independent contractor and must pay taxes on the income you earn in those occupations. Taxes are also paid by consumers whenever they purchase goods and services. Taxes are used for all sorts of spendingfrom roads, to bridges, to schools (K-12 and public higher education), to police and other public safety functions. Taxes fund vital public services that support our communities. 420 17 Government Budgets and Fiscal Policy Federal Taxes Just as many Americans erroneously think that federal spending has grown considerably, many also believe that taxes have increased substantially. The top line of Figure 17.5 shows total federal taxes as a share of GDP since 1960. Although the line rises and falls, it typically remains within the range of 17% to 20% of GDP, except for 2009-2011, when taxes fell substantially below this level, due to the Great Recession. What is the long-term budget outlook for Social Security and Medicare? In 1946, just one American in 13 was over age 65. By 2000, it was one in eight. By 2030, one American in five will be over age 65. Two enormous U.S. federal programs focus on the elderlySocial Security and Medicare. The growing numbers of elderly Americans will increase spending on these programs, as well as on Medicaid. The current payroll tax levied on workers, which supports all of Social Security and the hospitalization insurance part of Medicare, will not be enough to cover the expected costs, so what are the options? Long-term projections from the Congressional Budget Office in 2021 are that Medicare and Social Security spending combined will rise from 8.7% of GDP in 2021 to about 10.8% by 2027-2031. If this rise in spending occurs, without any corresponding rise in tax collections, then some mix of changes must occur: (1) taxes will need to increase dramatically; (2) other spending will need to be cut dramatically; (3) the retirement age and/or age receiving Medicare benefits will need to increase, or (4) the federal government will need to run extremely large budget deficits. Some proposals suggest removing the cap on wages subject to the payroll tax, so that those with very high incomes would have to pay the tax on the entire amount of their wages. Other proposals suggest moving Social Security and Medicare from systems in which workers pay for retirees toward programs that set up accounts where workers save funds over their lifetimes and then draw out after retirement to pay for healthcare. The United States is not alone in this problem. Providing the promised level of retirement and health benefits to a growing proportion of elderly with a falling proportion of workers is an even more severe problem in many European nations and in Japan. How to pay promised levels of benefits to the elderly will be a difficult public policy decision.