Question
The accompanying dataset provides the closing prices for four stocks and the stock exchange over 12 days. Complete parts a through c. Date A B
The accompanying dataset provides the closing prices for four stocks and the stock exchange over 12 days. Complete parts a through c.
Date A B C D Stock Exchange 09/03/2010 127.42 18.45 20.96 15.34 10,419.95 09/07/2010 127.11 18.02 20.45 15.39 10,281.72 09/08/2010 127.08 18.03 20.53 15.59 10,412.91 09/09/2010 126.09 17.92 20.52 15.89 10,472.05 09/10/2010 128.35 17.89 20.43 16.08 10,418.57 09/13/2010 128.51 18.68 21.12 16.32 10,642.59 09/14/2010 128.14 18.76 21.38 16.14 10,439.77 09/15/2010 129.84 18.66 21.41 16.23 10,664.59 09/16/2010 128.86 19.01 22.14 16.18 10,661.01 09/17/2010 130.16 18.91 21.73 16.17 10,526.13 09/20/2010 130.99 19.05 21.83 16.68 10,679.82 09/21/2010 132.16 19.03 21.53 16.41 10,751.74
a. Use Excel's Data Analysis Exponential Smoothing tool to forecast each of the stock prices using simple exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3. Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for stock A. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.)
Forecast A Date 09703/2010 09/07/2010 09/08/2010 09/09/2010 09/10/2010 09/13/2010 128.66 128.14 127.40 126.98 127.52 128.22 128.78 129.15 129.25 129.92 09/14/2010 09/15/2010 09/16/2010 09/17/2010 09/20/2010 09/21/2010 130.14 Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for stock B. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed Date Forecast B 09/03/2010 09/07/2010 18.58 09/08/2010 18.41 09/09/2010 18.25 09/10/2010 18.16 09/13/2010 18.09 09/14/2010 18.19 09/15/2010 18.34 09/16/2010 18.45 09/17/2010 18.56 09/20/2010 18.64 09/21/2010 18.70 Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for stock D. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Date Forecast D 09/03/2010 09/07/2010 15.43 09/08/2010 15.42 09/09/2010 15.51 09/10/2010 15.60 09/13/2010 15.75 09/14/2010 15.86 09/15/2010 15.97 09/16/2010 16.04 09/17/2010 16.06 09/20/2010 16.16 09/21/2010 16.31 Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for the stock exchange. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Forecast Stock Date Exchange 09/03/2010 09/07/2010 10,360.93 09/08/2010 10,355.10 09/09/2010 10,391.51 09/10/2010 10,384.45 09/13/2010 10,414.56 09/14/2010 10,456.63 09/15/2010 10,460.41 09/16/2010 10,497.30 09/17/2010 10,536.04 09/20/2010 10,552.52 09/21/2010 10,621.49 Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each of the models. Compute the MAD (mean absolute deviation) for each of the models. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Stock A 1.69 0.37 Stock B Stock C 0.34 Stock D 0.29 Stock Exchange 99.34 Compute the MSE (mean square error) for each of the models. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Stock A 3.32 Stock B 0.15 Stock C 0.19 0.11 Stock D Stock Exchange 13,851.12 Compute the MAPE (mean square error) for each of the models. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Stock A 1.31% Stock B 2.02 % Stock C 1.62% Stock D 1.82 % 0.94% Stock Exchange c. Does a smoothing constant of 0.1 or 0.5 yield better results? Select the correct answer below and, if necessary, fill in the answer box to complete the choice. A. A smoothing constant of 0.5 yields better results because the values of MAD, MSE and MAPE are all lower. (Type an integer or a decimal.) B. A smoothing constant of yields better results because the values of MAD, MSE and MAPE are all higher. (Type an integer or a decimal.) O C. Neither 0.1 nor 0.5 yield better results because the values of MAD, MSE and MAPE for a=0.3 are all lower. D. Neither 0.1 nor 0.5 yield better results because the values of MAD, MSE and MAPE for a = 0.3 are all higher. Forecast A Date 09703/2010 09/07/2010 09/08/2010 09/09/2010 09/10/2010 09/13/2010 128.66 128.14 127.40 126.98 127.52 128.22 128.78 129.15 129.25 129.92 09/14/2010 09/15/2010 09/16/2010 09/17/2010 09/20/2010 09/21/2010 130.14 Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for stock B. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed Date Forecast B 09/03/2010 09/07/2010 18.58 09/08/2010 18.41 09/09/2010 18.25 09/10/2010 18.16 09/13/2010 18.09 09/14/2010 18.19 09/15/2010 18.34 09/16/2010 18.45 09/17/2010 18.56 09/20/2010 18.64 09/21/2010 18.70 Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for stock D. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Date Forecast D 09/03/2010 09/07/2010 15.43 09/08/2010 15.42 09/09/2010 15.51 09/10/2010 15.60 09/13/2010 15.75 09/14/2010 15.86 09/15/2010 15.97 09/16/2010 16.04 09/17/2010 16.06 09/20/2010 16.16 09/21/2010 16.31 Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for the stock exchange. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Forecast Stock Date Exchange 09/03/2010 09/07/2010 10,360.93 09/08/2010 10,355.10 09/09/2010 10,391.51 09/10/2010 10,384.45 09/13/2010 10,414.56 09/14/2010 10,456.63 09/15/2010 10,460.41 09/16/2010 10,497.30 09/17/2010 10,536.04 09/20/2010 10,552.52 09/21/2010 10,621.49 Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each of the models. Compute the MAD (mean absolute deviation) for each of the models. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Stock A 1.69 0.37 Stock B Stock C 0.34 Stock D 0.29 Stock Exchange 99.34 Compute the MSE (mean square error) for each of the models. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Stock A 3.32 Stock B 0.15 Stock C 0.19 0.11 Stock D Stock Exchange 13,851.12 Compute the MAPE (mean square error) for each of the models. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Stock A 1.31% Stock B 2.02 % Stock C 1.62% Stock D 1.82 % 0.94% Stock Exchange c. Does a smoothing constant of 0.1 or 0.5 yield better results? Select the correct answer below and, if necessary, fill in the answer box to complete the choice. A. A smoothing constant of 0.5 yields better results because the values of MAD, MSE and MAPE are all lower. (Type an integer or a decimal.) B. A smoothing constant of yields better results because the values of MAD, MSE and MAPE are all higher. (Type an integer or a decimal.) O C. Neither 0.1 nor 0.5 yield better results because the values of MAD, MSE and MAPE for a=0.3 are all lower. D. Neither 0.1 nor 0.5 yield better results because the values of MAD, MSE and MAPE for a = 0.3 are all higherStep by Step Solution
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