The actual demand for wheat grain in metric tons for a flour mill set up recently in a new location for a period of 6 months is given below. As per the experts survey forecast for the first month of January was projected to be 310(370) metric tonnes. Calculate the forecasts for month 2 to 6 using smoothing constant al ha of 0.1 and 0.5 using the appropriate forecasting model and suggest e better model using MAD.

Month	Actual Demand
Jan	400
Feb	390
March	410
April	370
May	380
June	375

What is tracking signal, Comment on how tracking signal captures variation in forecast and its application.