The attached Vacation data file contains vacation packages sold by a travel agent over the last 12 years. The file includes quarterly data on the number of vacation packages sold. In Excel, add a sequential observation number and then convert the quarter number to a set of dummy variables for quarter 2 to quarter 4.

1. (10 pts) Run a linear regression model that uses the observation number and the quarterly dummies for quarter 2 to quarter 4 (i.e., quarter 1 is the base category) to predict vacation. What type of model is it?
2. (8 pts) Based on this model, what is the quarter 1 forecast for 2020? Round your answer to a whole number.