The board of directors of a university would like to know whether it is a good idea to start a "traditional" online distance learning programme in addition to the regular on-site programme. The members of the board would like to gain an understanding of the likely dynamics of the number of online and on-site students over time. Similar programmes elsewhere show that:

Students enrol when entering the programme, and unenroll when finishing the programme or when quitting. The annual number of students that passes the programme is equal to a percentage of the total number of online students, which is lower than the percentage of on-site students passing. Students unenroll due to dissatisfaction with the programme. Dissatisfaction is mainly caused by the perceived quality of the teaching. Enrolment is directly proportional to the tuition fee, the perceived quality of the programme, and is highly dependent on word of mouth advertisement by current and former students. The more students there are in the online programme, the lower the costs per student.

The quality of the teaching/professors depends on experience, expertise, and motivation. Motivation is inversely proportional to their workload and the number of complaints. Complaints are the direct result of the deterioration of the quality. Improving the educational quality raises the cost per online student. And long term teaching overload results in loss of expertise.

A traditional online programme may attract students that would otherwise enrol in the on- site programme, and hence, cannibalize the on-site programme. The work related to the online programme would have to be done by the professors that teach the on-site programme, in addition to their high workload for the on-site programme.

1. Draw a CLD related to this system. What do you advise the board of directors?

2. What if the online programme would be integrated in the on-site programme as a Collaborative Online Learning course- such that it would not lead to doubling the classes on-site professors would have to provide?

3. Is there an archetype that you can describe for this system?