THE BUS DECISION - Capital Budgeting Anita Night, a librarian at Valley University, lives in the community of Midtown, a community of approximately 45,000 residents which is twenty-five miles from school. Anita had been thinking about her commute to work for some time now; gas was over $4 a gallon and her car was approaching the 100,000-mile mark. She had discussions with several friends who make the same commute, and although they car-pool, they were wondering if a commuter bus would be an option that would be beneficial both to people who make the drive and to the university. Anita met with Geoff Newman, Vice President of Business Affairs. She asked if Valley University would consider purchasing a bus to use for employees and students to commute from Midtown to Valley University. She opined there were quite a few people who live in Midtown who drive to the university and that they would gladly pay a fare to cover the bus costs. Benefits would include a reduced carbon footprint and significantly fewer miles being driven on the cars used by these people. Geoff met with his staff and the president of the university to consider this service. After this meeting he met with Anita to explain the universitys position. While everyone liked the thought of providing the requested bus service, he explained, the university just isnt in the business of providing transportation to its employees. Valley University does not have the facilities nor staff to maintain the equipment and there is risk that this would lose money and cost the university financially. He said, Try explaining to the students why their tuition is going toward a commuter bus to Midtown! Geoff then offered an alternative. He said university officials would meet with MARTS, Midtown Authority Regional Transit Services; perhaps they would add a dedicated bus line to Valley University. MARTS is a public transportation system for the urbanized Midtown Area, which travels about 1.5 million miles per year. Over 2,700 people ride MARTS buses each day to work, doctor visits, shopping or school. People pay a minimal fare ($1.25 per fixed route), with MARTS being subsidized through a combination of tax dollars and other public funds. A week later Geoff met with Penny Kekel; controller for MARTS. Geoff asked if MARTS would consider adding a commuter service to Valley University. Penny explained that such a service would be out of MARTS regional jurisdiction, and as such the service cannot be subsidized through any public funding. In effect, the service would have to be paid for entirely by user fares and would be operated on a for profit basis. Geoff said the university would still be interested, and asked Penny if a proposal could be put together, culminating in the fare that would be charged users for the commuter bus service. Penny said yes. Penny further said that because this would be a separate service operated for a profit, they would purchase a bus (or busses) for this service rather than use busses from the existing fleet. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Valley Universitys department of institutional research revealed that 116 faculty and staff as well as 464 students lived in Midtown. These people were surveyed, and an analysis of the results lead to a projection that approximately 200 would use the commuter service. The bus schedule will be: 7:20am Midtown to Valley University then back to Midtown; 12:00pm Midtown to Valley University then back to Midtown; 4:45pm, Midtown to Valley University then back to Midtown; 9:30pm Midtown to Valley University then back to Midtown. The 9:30pm service exists due to the large number of students and faculty who take and teach night classes at Valley University. Each two-way commute will total 50 miles. Best estimate is as follows (round trips each): 30 passengers Midtown to Valley U and back to Midtown, 7:20am noon; 85 passengers Midtown to Valley U and back to Midtown, 7:20am 4:45pm; 10 passengers Midtown to Valley U and back to Midtown, 7:20am 9:30pm; 30 passengers Midtown to Valley U and back to Midtown, noon 4:45pm; 20 passengers Midtown to Valley U and back to Midtown, noon 9:30pm; 25 passengers Midtown to Valley U and back to Midtown, 4:45pm 9:30pm. Please see Illustration 1. Illustration 1 Projected Bus Schedule and Passengers Passengers Departure Midtown Valley University Valley University Midtown 7:20am 125 0 Noon 50 30 4:45pm 25 115 9:30pm 0 55 Four, 32 passenger busses will need to be purchased. A 35, 32 passenger vehicle can be acquired for $335,000. These vehicles have an estimated life of 12-years or 500,000 miles. These are diesel engine vehicles. Peak demand will be at 7:20am (125 passengers) and 4:45pm (115 passengers). As such, four, 32 passenger busses will be used. Utilizing budget numbers from previous years, the average maintenance cost per vehicle is approximately $5,800 per year. This is projected to grow at 5% per year. The bus authority is given various cost abatements with regard to fuel, and after abatements the average fuel cost for this year is expected to be $2.18 per gallon. The 32 passenger bus averages 3.80 miles per gallon. This fuel cost is projected to increase at an average of 6% per year. If a bus breaks down, MARTS will immediately dispatch a backup bus to the scene. The cost of dispatching this bus will be $500, and includes mileage, driver salary, etc. Busses are well maintained, and this is expected to seldom happen, perhaps four times per year. This cost is expected to increase approximately 5% per year. If a bus is full, with more people wanting to ride, an additional bus will be immediately dispatched. The cost will be $350 for a 22, 8-11 passenger lift bus or $500 for the 35, 32 passenger vehicle. The authority decided to project this would happen ten times throughout a year, and that the 8 11 passenger bus would be dispatched. This cost per bus is projected to increase 5% per year. The salary for a bus driver is $56,500 per year, including overtime, shift premiums, and other costs. Fringe benefits total $21,550. It is estimated that this service will need 4, full-time drivers. Wages and benefits are expected to increase approximately 3% per year. A daily bus route will be directly from Midtown to Valley University, a drive of twenty-five miles. The commuter service will operate 5 days per week. The bus service will be in operation when school is open. This would be fifteen weeks for each of the three semesters; fall, winter, and spring/summer, total of 45 weeks. Given the riskiness and uncertainty involved in this service, MARTS would like to use a 25% return per year as its hurdle rate. MARTS decided to use the bus life as the time frame for this analysis, 500,000 miles or 12 years. REQUIRED Assume you are Penny Kekel. What analytical techniques should be employed to analyze the data in #1? Give a brief description of each of these techniques. In the end, what should MARTS minimum fare be to provide the required 25% return on investment? Please perform the required excel analyses. Here are some clues: (can anyone solve this)??? 1-way bus fare to achieve a 25% return, $9.24. Now keep in mind that you may make assumptions that differ from mine, which may give you a different answer. Here are some items I hope will help: In my excel analysis, I included a column called "One-way Fare", then would plug numbers in that column until arriving at a 25% IRR. In effect, the entire analysis was finished, with that column blank, then I entered dollar amounts for a fare until arriving at an NPV that was close to zero and a 25% IRR, and also a payback estimate. How many one-way fares are there per year? How many gallons of gas will be used each year? Use a 12-year timeframe for your analysis. Will any of the busses need to be replaced during the 12-years? Or can their usage be distributed such that they will all last the 12-years? The answer is yes, they will all last the 12-years, if their usage is distributed properly. I would like you to show how this can happen, in your analysis.