The Case Study Many times project teams leam to dislike risk meetings. The demonstration that the attendees will participate in will show that risk meetings can be enjoyable as well as productive. This will be done by keeping the meeting upbeat and productive. The attendees at the presentation will be given a description and set of ground rules for the project, the marriage of Liz Taylor. They will be given information to create the environment of the project, an explanation of the work that has already been done, the assumptions and constraints of the project. The attendee project team will be responsible only for the activities on the day of the wedding. Ground Rules There are not many ground rules for the exercise. 1. The facilitator must try to convince everyone to participate and try not to let one person dominate the discussion. 2. No risks should be rejected. Part of the fun is to have the participants think up things that could happen at the wedding that are a bit on the absurd side. 3. To limit the number of risks the participants must limit the risks to those that can occur on the day of the wedding. 4. The participants must be reminded that when they identify a risk it should be stated in a way that it can be quantified. Project Description It is spring and Elizabeth Taylor has decided to tie the knot and get married once again. This will be Liz Taylor's 9 marriage. That is if you count her marriage and remarriage to the same person as separate marriages. She married Richard Burton two times, in 1964 and again in 1975. They were of course separate weddings. Liz wants the wedding to be a great success because it may be her last shot at happiness and it may be her last chance to have a really big wedding. As the project manager we are responsible for the events that take place on the day of the wedding. We are not responsible for the events that take place prior to and after the wedding. We are not responsible for the prenuptial agreement, purchasing the wedding rings, inviting the guests or arranging for the honeymoon. We are responsible for arranging all of the events that take place on the day of the wedding. These include, but are not limited to, making arrangements for the following: Wedding Ceremony Who is going to officiate? Wedding music during the ceremony Food Catering food in the welcoming area, the wedding area, the entertainment area Catering a sit down dinner after the wedding Main wedding cake and mini wedding cakes for each table Beverages Providing drinks in all areas Entertainment Small band music prior to the wedding Dance music after the wedding Michael Jackson and his backup band The New York Philharmonic Orchestra The Blue Angels Party Favors Small gift for each of the guests Larger gift for each of the members of the wedding party Small gifts for staff Large gifts for local police VIP Transportation Special transportation for distinguished guests: President of the United States Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britan President Putin of Russia Former President Jimmy Carter Former President Gerald Ford Donald Trump 14 United States Senators 114 United States Congressmen The Gotti Family Debbie and Kelly O'Bray Cathy Tonne Security Perimeter security from paparazzi Internal security for unruly guests Terrorist attacks Contamination of food and drink Air security Parking lots Medical Care Emergency medical staff Emergency infirmary Private doctor for bride and groom Clothing Liz Taylor's dress Groom's clothing The wedding party Dressers for hair, make up and clothing Location The wedding is to take place outdoors at Liz Taylor's mansion which is on 10 acres of landscaped lawns and gardens in Beverly Hills, California. Decorations Flowers and decorations inside house Flowers and decorations outside house Wedding flowers for Bride Flowers for wedding party Risk Management Exercise With the help of the presenter/facilitator, the attendees will use the brain storming technique to list the risks that they think are associated with the project. The facilitator will list the risks on a flip chart or suitable display device. Rank Risk Description Impact Probability Severity Exhibit 1 Identification Referring to Exhibit 1, a flip chart is used to write down all of the risks that the participants name. It is very important that the principles of brainstorming be used. That is that ANY risk that is mentioned is allowed to be listed. It is important that the participants be encouraged to add risks to the list that are a bit on the absurd side. This will increase the entertainment value of the exercise. The facilitator must guide the participants to stay within the scope of the project. That is, the participants should not list risks that are not within the scope of this project. Risks that should be excluded are risks that occur off the wedding property or risks that take place before or after the wedding day. The facilitator must be careful not to judge the mentioned risks and not allow the other participants to judge the risks. The brain storming session continues until the fist page of the flip chart is filled with identified risks. When all of the risks have been listed the attendees will be asked to evaluate the risks listed. Both the probability and the impact of each risk are to be evaluated qualitatively. In qualitative analysis the impact or the probability of each risk can be evaluated as high or low, low, medium or high or on a scale of 0 to 10. We have found that evaluating the risks on a scale of 0 to 10 works best. A value of 0 means that there is either no impact or a zero probability for the risk. A value of 10 means that the probability for the risk is 100%, a virtual certainty. Risks that have an impact or probability of O are insignificant and can be eliminated from further consideration. Risks that have a probability of 10 are a certainty and should be included in the project plan. They are not risks. Evaluate Probability and Impact It is best to evaluate the impact of each risk first. This discussion will expand everyone's understanding of the nature of the risk. For example, someone will probably name rain as a risk. When the impact of the risk is evaluated some participants will name the impact as a 10 and others will say that the impact is a five. The facilitator can question the two values by saying, "What do you mean by that?" One of the participants may mean that rain is any rain at all, even a small amount while another may say that rain means a really gully washer. Rather than take too long to evaluate each probability and impact, encourage each participant to yell out a number and then pick one that is some place in the middle. Evaluation of Severity Once the probability and impact have been listed on the flip chart, the severity can be calculated. This is done by simply multiplying the value for the risk in the impact column by the value in the probability column. Ranking the Risks Looking over the list of risks and their severity, mark the rank of the four or five highest severity risks. There will usually be a break where there will be four or five risks that have a quite high severity and the rest will be noticeably lower. It is not necessary to rank all of the risks. Setting Risk Strategy Going over the four or five highest ranked risks, and starting with the highest ranked one, ask the participants what they would do about it. The participants will give ideas of things that could be done. Encourage them to consider mitigation strategies of reducing the probability or the impact or both. Transfer and avoidance strategies can also be used. The risks that are ranked lower are perhaps risks that could be accepted