The consensus earnings estimate for Manulife Financial (MFC) stock is CAD 0.75. If the company reports EPS of CAD 0.82 on 03-Aug-21, it would create a 9.3% surprise. MFC is trading today at CAD 24. If the average six-month PEAD for a stock with a 9.3% surprise is 1.50% with a standard deviation of 2.75%, what is the probability that a long position earns a positive return if opened upon the earnings announcement and closed out in six months? Pick which of these is closest to the correct answer: A. 35% B. 50% C. 71% D. 66%