The construction project consists of 3 activities with the following durations:

1. Design, with a duration normally distributed with a mean of 90 days and a standard deviation of 15 days

2. Procurement, with a duration of 100 days, and a standard deviation of 30 days

3. Construction: with a duration of 120 days and a standard deviation of 10 days Activity 1 and 2 are performed in parallel (i.e. simultaneously).

The activity 3 cannot be started until activity 1 and 2 are finished. After running a simulation with at least 1,000 replications, what is the expected total duration of the project and the probability of this duration being less than 200 days?