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The current futures price of a stock is $15 per share. One month later, when the futures option expires, the futures price could have risen

The current futures price of a stock is $15 per share. One month later, when the futures option expires, the futures price could have risen to $16.5 per share or declined to $14 per share. The strike price is $14.5. The risk-free rate is 6%.

What is the risk neutral probability for pricing the futures option in this case? (2 marks)

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