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The current price of a non-dividend-paying stock is $58. Over the next six months it is expected to rise to $85 or fall to $44.

The current price of a non-dividend-paying stock is $58. Over the next six months it is expected to rise to $85 or fall to $44. Assume the risk-free rate is zero. What is the risk-neutral probability of that the stock price will be $44 (i.e. the risk neutral probability of a down movement)?

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