Question
The data are total annual returns for the S&P 500 (net price appreciation plus dividends) from 1928 through 2021. The value is a percent return.
The data are total annual returns for the S&P 500 (net price appreciation plus dividends) from 1928 through 2021. The value is a percent return. (Important note: Percent (%) signs were not included in the dataset values so Excel will treat these values as being in number format rather than percentage format. Leaving values in number format avoids confusion that can occur when percentage format values are used in formulas and analysis tools that convert them to decimal fractions, resulting in a shift in the decimal point. I suggest not using percent (%) signs in any entries for this lab assignment.) Using these data, group the total annual returns into classes. The lowest class should be defined as "At least -45 but less than -30", the second lowest class defined as "At least -30 but less than -15", and so on, with enough equal width classes so that each data value falls into one of the classes. Find the frequencies for each class and create a histogram chart showing the class frequencies.
S&P 500 Pct Ann RetEnter your name in cell G1:192843.811161929-8.297951930-25.123641931-43.837551932-8.64236193349.982231934-1.18857193546.74042193631.943411937-35.33673193829.282651939-1.097561940-10.672871941-12.77146194219.17376194325.06131194419.03068194535.821081946-8.4291519475.2000019485.70458194918.30322195030.80554195123.67846195218.150991953-1.20820195452.56332195532.5973319567.439511957-10.45736195843.71995195912.0564619600.33654196126.637711962-8.81146196322.61193196416.41546196512.399241966-9.97095196723.80297196810.814861969-8.2413719703.56114197114.22115197218.755361973-14.308051974-25.90179197536.99514197623.831001977-6.9797019786.50928197918.51949198031.735251981-4.70239198220.41906198322.3371619846.14614198531.23515198618.4945819875.81272198816.53719198931.475181990-3.06445199130.2348419927.4937319939.9670519941.32592199537.19520199622.68097199733.10365199828.33795199920.885352000-9.031822001-11.849762002-21.96605200328.35580200410.7427820054.83448200615.6125620075.484742008-36.55234200925.93523201014.8210920112.09837201215.89059201332.14509201413.5244220151.37889201611.77308201721.605482018-4.22687201931.21168202018.02320202128.46885
In addition to the data on the first worksheet, two additional columns appear. One indicates whether the total return is a gain or a loss. The second added column indicates whether the year was the first, second, third, or fourth relative to a Presidential term. Using these data, create a contingency table showing the count of how many years fall in each pairing of the year relative to its Presidential term (First, Second, Third, Fourth) and whether the total return for the S&P 500 for the year was a gain or a loss. Create a stacked column chart based on the contingency table, with one column for each of the four relative years in a Presidential term. Below the chart, provide a brief discussion whether the distribution of gains and losses tends to differ between relative years in a Presidential term, and if so, how they are different.
Year | S&P 500 Pct Ann Ret | Gain/Loss | Presid Term Relative Year | |
1928 | 43.81116 | Gain | Fourth | |
1929 | -8.29795 | Loss | First | ` |
1930 | -25.12364 | Loss | Second | |
1931 | -43.83755 | Loss | Third | |
1932 | -8.64236 | Loss | Fourth | |
1933 | 49.98223 | Gain | First | |
1934 | -1.18857 | Loss | Second | |
1935 | 46.74042 | Gain | Third | |
1936 | 31.94341 | Gain | Fourth | |
1937 | -35.33673 | Loss | First | |
1938 | 29.28265 | Gain | Second | |
1939 | -1.09756 | Loss | Third | |
1940 | -10.67287 | Loss | Fourth | |
1941 | -12.77146 | Loss | First | |
1942 | 19.17376 | Gain | Second | |
1943 | 25.06131 | Gain | Third | |
1944 | 19.03068 | Gain | Fourth | |
1945 | 35.82108 | Gain | First | |
1946 | -8.42915 | Loss | Second | |
1947 | 5.20000 | Gain | Third | |
1948 | 5.70458 | Gain | Fourth | |
1949 | 18.30322 | Gain | First | |
1950 | 30.80554 | Gain | Second | |
1951 | 23.67846 | Gain | Third | |
1952 | 18.15099 | Gain | Fourth | |
1953 | -1.20820 | Loss | First | |
1954 | 52.56332 | Gain | Second | |
1955 | 32.59733 | Gain | Third | |
1956 | 7.43951 | Gain | Fourth | |
1957 | -10.45736 | Loss | First | |
1958 | 43.71995 | Gain | Second | |
1959 | 12.05646 | Gain | Third | |
1960 | 0.33654 | Gain | Fourth | |
1961 | 26.63771 | Gain | First | |
1962 | -8.81146 | Loss | Second | |
1963 | 22.61193 | Gain | Third | |
1964 | 16.41546 | Gain | Fourth | |
1965 | 12.39924 | Gain | First | |
1966 | -9.97095 | Loss | Second | |
1967 | 23.80297 | Gain | Third | |
1968 | 10.81486 | Gain | Fourth | |
1969 | -8.24137 | Loss | First | |
1970 | 3.56114 | Gain | Second | |
1971 | 14.22115 | Gain | Third | |
1972 | 18.75536 | Gain | Fourth | |
1973 | -14.30805 | Loss | First | |
1974 | -25.90179 | Loss | Second | |
1975 | 36.99514 | Gain | Third | |
1976 | 23.83100 | Gain | Fourth | |
1977 | -6.97970 | Loss | First | |
1978 | 6.50928 | Gain | Second | |
1979 | 18.51949 | Gain | Third | |
1980 | 31.73525 | Gain | Fourth | |
1981 | -4.70239 | Loss | First | |
1982 | 20.41906 | Gain | Second | |
1983 | 22.33716 | Gain | Third | |
1984 | 6.14614 | Gain | Fourth | |
1985 | 31.23515 | Gain | First | |
1986 | 18.49458 | Gain | Second | |
1987 | 5.81272 | Gain | Third | |
1988 | 16.53719 | Gain | Fourth | |
1989 | 31.47518 | Gain | First | |
1990 | -3.06445 | Loss | Second | |
1991 | 30.23484 | Gain | Third | |
1992 | 7.49373 | Gain | Fourth | |
1993 | 9.96705 | Gain | First | |
1994 | 1.32592 | Gain | Second | |
1995 | 37.19520 | Gain | Third | |
1996 | 22.68097 | Gain | Fourth | |
1997 | 33.10365 | Gain | First | |
1998 | 28.33795 | Gain | Second | |
1999 | 20.88535 | Gain | Third | |
2000 | -9.03182 | Loss | Fourth | |
2001 | -11.84976 | Loss | First | |
2002 | -21.96605 | Loss | Second | |
2003 | 28.35580 | Gain | Third | |
2004 | 10.74278 | Gain | Fourth | |
2005 | 4.83448 | Gain | First | |
2006 | 15.61256 | Gain | Second | |
2007 | 5.48474 | Gain | Third | |
2008 | -36.55234 | Loss | Fourth | |
2009 | 25.93523 | Gain | First | |
2010 | 14.82109 | Gain | Second | |
2011 | 2.09837 | Gain | Third | |
2012 | 15.89059 | Gain | Fourth | |
2013 | 32.14509 | Gain | First | |
2014 | 13.52442 | Gain | Second | |
2015 | 1.37889 | Gain | Third | |
2016 | 11.77308 | Gain | Fourth | |
2017 | 21.60548 | Gain | First | |
2018 | -4.22687 | Loss | Second | |
2019 | 31.21168 | Gain | Third | |
2020 | 18.02320 | Gain | Fourth | |
2021 | 28.46885 | Gain | First |
Using your class frequencies, construct a table showing the cumulative relative frequencies for all the defined classes. Below your table of cumulative relative frequencies, give a brief answer to the following question: What is the smallest class limit value for which the total return was less than that limit value in at least 70% of the years in the dataset?
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