The data below represent the demand for a new aftershave in a shop for each of the last 7 months.

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Demand 23 29 33 40 41 43 49

1. Calculate a two-month moving average for months two to seven. What would be your forecast for the demand in month eight?

1. Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.1 to derive a forecast for the demand in month eight.

1. Which of the two forecasts for month eight do you prefer and why?