The early stage of a bull market is characterized by increasing multiples increasing corporate earnings decreasing multiples high volatility low volatility The normal yield curve is generally favorable for banks is generally unfavorable for banks is a sign that a recession may be coming is a relatively rare condition in the credit markets The inverted yield curve: happens when a recession has already begun happens when a recession is over happens when a recession is likely to follow within 1-2 years happens when the Fed raises short term interest rates too fast "Crowding out" in the credit market refers to a market regime characterized by: huge stock market trading volume high frequency of credit downgrades all hedge funds using similar strategies greatly increased government borrowing