Question
The file is a quarterly times series from the first quarter of 1960 to the fourth quarter of 2019. Organize your dataset as a time
The file is a quarterly times series from the first quarter of 1960 to the fourth quarter of 2019. Organize your dataset as a time series and assume that the series is a flow variable.
1. Estimate the trend of the series using a quadratic trend.
a. What is the value of the trend in the second quarter of 2011? Round your answer to the nearest second decimal.
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b. What is the value of the detrended series in the fourth quarter of 1992? Round your answer to the nearest second decimal.
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2. Using the detrended series, compute the cyclical component of the series.
a. What is the value of the cycle in the fourth quarter of 1993? Round your answer to the nearest second decimal.
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b. What is the value of the low frequency component in the first quarter of 2012? Round your answer to the nearest second decimal.
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3. Compute the seasonal component of your series.
a. What are the four seasonal values of the four quarters? Round your answer to the nearest second decimal.
i. Quarter 1: ___
ii. Quarter 2: ___
iii. Quarter 3: ___
iv. Quarter 4: ___
b. What is the value of the seasonally adjusted series in the third quarter of 1993? Round your answer to the nearest second decimal.
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\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|} \hline 2007 & 3 & 1739 \\ \hline 2007 & 4 & 1826 \\ \hline 2008 & 1 & 1765 \\ \hline 2008 & 2 & 1843 \\ \hline 2008 & 4 & 1835 \\ \hline 2009 & 1 & 1928 \\ \hline 2009 & 2 & 1893 \\ \hline 2009 & 3 & 1860 \\ \hline 2009 & 4 & 1905 \\ \hline 2010 & 1 & 1855 \\ \hline 2010 & 2 & 1929 \\ \hline 2010 & 3 & 1910 \\ \hline 2010 & 4 & 2008 \\ \hline 2011 & 1 & 1917 \\ \hline 2011 & 2 & 2021 \\ \hline 2015 & 2 & 2231 \\ \hline 2011 & 3 & 2020 \\ \hline 2014 & 3 & 2148 \\ \hline 2011 & 4 & 2105 \\ \hline 2012 & 1 & 1998 \\ \hline 2012 & 2 & 2046 \\ \hline 2012 & 3 & 2114 \\ \hline 2012 & 3 & 2042 \\ \hline 2012 & 4 & 2095 \\ \hline 2013 & 1 & 2003 \\ \hline & 2 & 2094 \\ \hline & 3 & 2108 \\ \hline & 4 & 2196 \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|} \hline 2015 & 3 & 2249 \\ \hline 2015 & 4 & 2308 \\ \hline 2016 & 1 & 2228 \\ \hline 2016 & 2 & 2290 \\ \hline 2016 & 3 & 2274 \\ \hline 2016 & 4 & 2342 \\ \hline 2017 & 1 & 2283 \\ \hline 2017 & 2 & 2325 \\ \hline 2017 & 3 & 2317 \\ \hline 2017 & 4 & 2411 \\ \hline 2018 & 1 & 2293 \\ \hline 2018 & 2 & 2371 \\ \hline 2018 & 3 & 2395 \\ \hline 2018 & 4 & 2488 \\ \hline 2019 & 1 & 2419 \\ \hline 2019 & 2 & 2504 \\ \hline 2019 & 3 & 2511 \\ \hline 2019 & 4 & 2595 \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|} \hline 2007 & 3 & 1739 \\ \hline 2007 & 4 & 1826 \\ \hline 2008 & 1 & 1765 \\ \hline 2008 & 2 & 1843 \\ \hline 2008 & 4 & 1835 \\ \hline 2009 & 1 & 1928 \\ \hline 2009 & 2 & 1893 \\ \hline 2009 & 3 & 1860 \\ \hline 2009 & 4 & 1905 \\ \hline 2010 & 1 & 1855 \\ \hline 2010 & 2 & 1929 \\ \hline 2010 & 3 & 1910 \\ \hline 2010 & 4 & 2008 \\ \hline 2011 & 1 & 1917 \\ \hline 2011 & 2 & 2021 \\ \hline 2015 & 2 & 2231 \\ \hline 2011 & 3 & 2020 \\ \hline 2014 & 3 & 2148 \\ \hline 2011 & 4 & 2105 \\ \hline 2012 & 1 & 1998 \\ \hline 2012 & 2 & 2046 \\ \hline 2012 & 3 & 2114 \\ \hline 2012 & 3 & 2042 \\ \hline 2012 & 4 & 2095 \\ \hline 2013 & 1 & 2003 \\ \hline & 2 & 2094 \\ \hline & 3 & 2108 \\ \hline & 4 & 2196 \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|} \hline 2015 & 3 & 2249 \\ \hline 2015 & 4 & 2308 \\ \hline 2016 & 1 & 2228 \\ \hline 2016 & 2 & 2290 \\ \hline 2016 & 3 & 2274 \\ \hline 2016 & 4 & 2342 \\ \hline 2017 & 1 & 2283 \\ \hline 2017 & 2 & 2325 \\ \hline 2017 & 3 & 2317 \\ \hline 2017 & 4 & 2411 \\ \hline 2018 & 1 & 2293 \\ \hline 2018 & 2 & 2371 \\ \hline 2018 & 3 & 2395 \\ \hline 2018 & 4 & 2488 \\ \hline 2019 & 1 & 2419 \\ \hline 2019 & 2 & 2504 \\ \hline 2019 & 3 & 2511 \\ \hline 2019 & 4 & 2595 \\ \hline \end{tabular}Step by Step Solution
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