The first five periods of demand data are shown in the following table .Let the smoothing coefficient, alpha, equal 0.2.Compute the exponentially smoothed forecasts for periods one through four .Initialize the procedure with a forecast value for periodone of 37.

Period Aggregate Demand Forecast demand

0 - -

1 38 37

2 42

3 40

4 36

5 42

Determine the Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE), the Mean Absolute Deviation, MAD_t-1,and the Tracking Signal(TS) at the end of each period.

Let the initial MAD_t-1 for period 0 be equal to 2.